Who's In the Race

President Donald Trump endorsed Greg Cunningham for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District on Oct. 3, according to the New Mexico Political Report. The endorsement set up a sharper contrast in a New Mexico congressional race that already pits two candidates with starkly different backgrounds against one another. ​

Democrat Gabe Vasquez, the incumbent, is running in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, which he has represented since 2023. Before Congress, Vasquez served on the Las Cruces City Council, worked on Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich's staff, and led the Las Cruces Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. Greg Cunningham, the Republican candidate, is a retired U.S. Marine and Albuquerque detective who worked as a Drug Enforcement Administration task-force officer on border cases, according to Source New Mexico, while his campaign website describes him as a New Mexico business owner.

Vasquez ran unopposed in the Democratic primary on June 2. Cunningham won the Republican primary with about 85 percent of the vote over Jose Orozco.

What They Stand For

On his campaign website, Vasquez has supported raising wages and workers' right to organize, and has proposed lowering costs for working families and strengthening small businesses. He has backed protecting public lands, citing bipartisan wildfire legislation and efforts to stop a proposed sale of federal public lands. He has supported a public option for health care and Medicare negotiation of prescription-drug prices, and says he has fought to cap insulin prices. On immigration, he has backed "commonsense border security," protections for Dreamers, and a permanent legal-status pathway for hard-working families, while proposing to reform Immigration and Customs Enforcement to focus on deporting violent criminals. He opposes efforts to ban abortion and birth control, saying women should have the right to choose.

In a candidate interview with Source New Mexico, Cunningham has said public safety is the district's paramount concern, emphasizing safety in homes, schools, and workplaces. He has proposed a modernized national crime bill addressing sanctuary cities, sentencing guidelines, the border, and cartels. On border security, he has said people who enter the country illegally and commit crimes should be identified, and that "shutting the border down" is a first step. He has said communities should decide whether data centers meet local needs, with contracts protecting community interests and water and power resources. He opposes barring public entities from contracting with ICE for immigrant detention, saying Otero County wants the facility for jobs and stability.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Vasquez raised about $3.8 million through June 30 and had about $2.4 million in the bank. Cunningham raised about $1.5 million through June 30 and had about $794,000 cash on hand.

Outside spending in the race totaled only around $3,615 as of Oct. 8, all of it supporting Vasquez, with Blue CD2 New Mexico USA as the largest spender at about $3,252.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Lean Democratic" as of Sept. 25, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it "Lean Democratic" as of Sept. 29. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, with Vasquez as their nominee, a 94.9 percent chance of winning as of the afternoon on Oct. 8.

Vasquez won the district in both 2022 and 2024, taking about 50 percent of the vote in 2022 and about 52 percent in 2024. Democrats won all three of New Mexico's U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024. Kamala Harris carried New Mexico in the 2024 presidential election with about 52 percent of the vote.

Voters who have not yet registered can do so online or by mail through Tuesday, Oct. 6; same-day registration is also available during early voting through Saturday, Oct. 31, and on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3. Mail-ballot applications are due by Tuesday, Oct. 20. Early voting runs Tuesday, Oct. 6 through Saturday, Oct. 31, with hours varying by county and voting site, according to the New Mexico Secretary of State. Polls on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Mountain Time.

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