What Happened?

If you live in Michigan, you’re watching one of the most expensive Senate races in state history, and one pro-Israel group has spent more than $20 million trying to keep Abdul El-Sayed out of the Senate. United Democracy Project, the super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has reported $20.63 million in spending against the Democratic nominee, according to Legis1’s review of its filings. ​

Nearly all of that money was spent in June and July, before El-Sayed won the Aug. 4 Democratic primary. During the same stretch, the group spent $10.52 million backing his main rival, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI). Since the primary, it has added smaller amounts against El-Sayed, including mailers to Jewish voters.

Why Does It Matter To Me?

El-Sayed now faces Republican Mike Rogers on Tuesday, Nov. 3, in a race the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate a Toss-up. A Marist poll taken Oct. 15 through 18 had El-Sayed at 50% and Rogers at 48%, Newsweek reported.

Outside groups on both sides are spending heavily. Senate Leadership Fund has reported $40.16 million and No Going Back PAC $24.69 million against El-Sayed, while WinSenate has reported $26.81 million against Rogers, according to Legis1. Total disclosed spending in the race has passed $205 million, Bridge Michigan reported.

Both Sides, Now

United Democracy Project describes itself as a coalition of Democrats, Republicans and independents who want to elect supporters of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Its mailers have targeted El-Sayed’s response to the March attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, when he condemned the violence but said “hurt people hurt people” and tied it to Israel’s actions in the Middle East.

El-Sayed apologized to the Michigan Jewish Democratic Caucus in late August. “What I was trying to do was offer context for why it happened, but it wasn’t the time for context,” he said, CBS Detroit reported.

What Happens Next?

United Democracy Project had $112.82 million in receipts through Wednesday, Oct. 14, including $30 million from AIPAC, and about $56.6 million in the bank, according to Federal Election Commission records. That leaves plenty to spend in the final week. Its next largest target this year was Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who lost his May primary after the group spent $3.58 million against him.

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