Who's In the Race

Alaska's governor's race is an open-seat contest because Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term. Former Democratic state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces Republicans Bernadette Wilson, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former state Attorney General Treg Taylor in the Nov. 3 general election. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank the candidates in order of preference. ​

In the Aug. 18 top-four primary, Kreiss-Tomkins led the field with 22.5% of the vote, followed by Democrat Tom Begich with 20.8%, Wilson with 10% and Bronson with 8.1%. Begich subsequently withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, opening a place on the general election ballot for fifth-place finisher Taylor, who received 7.3% of the primary vote.

Endorsements

Wilson has the backing of President Donald Trump, who endorsed her at an Oct. 13 rally in Wasilla, as well as former Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell. Trump endorsed Wilson despite two other Republican candidates in the race.

Kreiss-Tomkins has assembled an unusually broad coalition of current and former officials spanning party lines. Former Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski, former independent Gov. Bill Walker and former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles endorsed him in a joint opinion piece published Oct. 27. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Frank Murkowski's daughter, also endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins that day, citing his commitment to bipartisanship and cooperation across political divisions.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Two of the three major race-rating outlets classify Alaska's governor's race as Lean Democratic, while the third rates it a Toss-up. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest Lean Democratic, while Inside Elections currently lists it as Tilt Democratic, an improvement from its previous Toss-up rating. The Legis1 consensus forecast stood at Toss-up as of Oct. 23, before Inside Elections' latest assessment.

The race has drawn 62 polls, with the most recent dated Oct. 30, according to the supplied Legis1 data, but that dataset includes no polling average. An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted Oct. 23-25 found Kreiss-Tomkins receiving 50.7% of first-choice support, compared with Wilson's 30.6%, Bronson's 12.1% and Taylor's 6.6%. The results offer a snapshot of first-choice preferences, although ranked-choice tabulation could change the outcome if no candidate wins a majority initially.

Previous Elections

Trump carried Alaska in the 2024 presidential election with 54.5% of the vote, compared with 41.4% for Democrat Kamala Harris, a margin of approximately 13 percentage points. That result provides context for the Democratic-leaning ratings in a state where Republicans have traditionally performed strongly in presidential elections.

In the 2022 governor's race, Dunleavy won reelection with 132,632 votes, or 50.3%, while Democrat Les Gara finished second with 63,851 votes, or 24.2%. Independent Bill Walker received 54,668 votes, or 20.7%, and Republican Charlie Pierce received 11,817 votes, or 4.5%.

Dunleavy's 68,781-vote lead over Gara exceeded Gara's entire vote total, and Dunleavy secured a first-round majority under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. With Dunleavy off the ballot and three Republicans competing against Kreiss-Tomkins, the current contest presents a different field of candidates and potential vote-transfer dynamics.

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