Who's In the Race

Five candidates are vying for Alaska's U.S. Senate seat, including Mary Peltola, David Leslie, Dan Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan and Gerald Hiekes.

The state held a top-four primary on Aug. 18. On the Democratic side, Peltola led the primary field with nearly 50 percent of the vote, and Leslie also advanced. Three Republicans advanced: incumbent Dan Sullivan, who drew about 41 percent; Daniel J. Sullivan, who drew about two and a half percent; and Heikes, who drew just over one percent.

What They Stand For

Peltola's campaign website describes a proposal for an annual tax credit for families as part of her affordability agenda. Peltola has called for congressional term limits, describing her platform as aimed at "fixing the rigged system in DC," according to the Alaska Beacon. Her campaign website includes a bipartisan legacy statement emphasizing her record of working across party lines, stating that differences should not prevent cooperation on issues affecting working Alaskans.

Sullivan has emphasized energy development and delivering results for Alaska families, according to his official Senate website and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He has also focused on fisheries, leading a letter urging sanctions on China's illegal fishing fleet, and his official candidate statement with the Alaska Division of Elections identifies him as a colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness. His campaign frames his record around pro-growth tax policy and opposition to federal regulatory overreach, as noted in his profile on the National Republican Senatorial Committee site.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have spent a combined $6,083,909 in independent expenditures in this race through periodic Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, with $3,701,211 in spending associated with Democratic candidates and $2,382,698 associated with Republican candidates.

Opposition spending has outpaced support spending by roughly two to one: outside groups spent $4,102,676 opposing candidates and $1,981,233 supporting them. Those figures reflect periodic filings through Sept. 21.

An additional $21.7 million in 24- and 48-hour notices had been filed as of Sept. 24 but had not yet been restated in periodic reports, meaning the totals above do not capture the full picture of spending in the race.

The five leading outside spenders, by total independent expenditures in periodic filings, are:

  • Last Frontier PAC: $2,778,529
  • Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action): $1,172,590
  • AB PAC: $1,046,651
  • $410,002
  • American Democracy Project: $300,000

These five committees account for only a portion of total outside activity; at least 36 additional filings from other committees exist in the data but fall outside this leaderboard.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this a toss-up. The Cook Political Report rated it a toss-up as of Sept. 23; Sabato's Crystal Ball and the consensus rating both carried the same label as of Sept. 22.

On the prediction market Kalshi, as of Sept. 24, Democratic candidates held a 71 percent implied probability of winning the seat, with Republican candidates at 29 percent.

A polling average compiled by Decision Desk HQ, based on 41 polls through Sept. 17, showed Peltola leading Sullivan 49.5 percent to 48.3 percent, a margin of 1.2 points, within the average's 1.2-point margin of error.

Alaska's recent federal congressional results offer mixed signals about the state's partisan lean. In 2022, Democrat Mary Peltola won Alaska's at-large U.S. House seat with about 49 percent of the vote.

That same year, Lisa Murkowski won Alaska's other Senate seat running as an independent, with about 43 percent. In 2024, Republican Nick Begich won the at-large House seat with about 48 percent.

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