Who's In the Race

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) faces Democrat Mary Peltola, Republican Gerald L. Heikes, and three other candidates in Alaska's November 3 U.S. Senate race, which uses ranked-choice voting in which voters rank candidates and the lowest finisher is eliminated each round until someone wins a majority. ​

Sullivan has served in the Senate since 2015 and previously served as Alaska attorney general, commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs. He also served 30 years in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, retiring in 2024 as a colonel.

Peltola grew up fishing salmon on the Kuskokwim River, served in the Alaska House of Representatives from 1999 to 2009, and represented Alaska in the U.S. House from 2022 to 2025.

Both advanced from the August 18 top-four primary: Peltola led with about 50 percent of the vote, and Sullivan finished second with about 41 percent. Peltola's margin over Sullivan in that primary was more than eight percentage points.

What They Stand For

Peltola has proposed banning factory trawling, reducing bycatch, and securing fishery disaster funding to restore Alaska fish stocks, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Alaska energy development, including refining more oil in-state and advancing the Alaska LNG pipeline,
  • Tax relief for working and middle-class Alaskans, an expanded Child Tax Credit, and eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits,
  • Modernizing energy grids and restoring federal tax credits for solar, wind, and hydropower to lower rural energy costs; and
  • Working across party lines on Alaska resource development and lowering costs for Alaskans.

Sullivan has proposed expanding Alaska resource development through legislation including the Alaska's Right to Produce Act 2.0, according to his official Senate website. He also supports:

  • Reducing bycatch and improving marine data collection and electronic monitoring to protect fish stocks and seafloor habitat,
  • Increased military investment and bringing more military assets to Alaska, according to his campaign website,
  • Improving Alaska veterans' access to VA health care, including a VA pilot program focused on the state's system; and
  • A strong national defense, which his campaign highlights through military investment and bringing more military assets to Alaska.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 29, Peltola had raised about $18.5 million, roughly $6.8 million more than Sullivan's about $11.7 million, but Sullivan held more cash on hand, about $7.3 million to Peltola's about $4.6 million, a gap of about $2.7 million.

Outside groups have spent about $3 million opposing Peltola, with Last Frontier PAC accounting for about $2.8 million of that total, roughly 91 percent of all anti-Peltola outside spending, according to FEC filings.

In contrast, outside groups have spent about $331,000 supporting Peltola, led by EDW Action Fund at about $254,000, meaning spending against her outpaces spending for her by more than nine to one.

Outside groups have spent about $2.2 million opposing Sullivan, with Right for Alaska the largest spender at about $1.1 million, and about $1.3 million supporting him, led by Americans for Prosperity Action at about $987,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race a toss-up as of Oct. 12; Inside Elections also rated it a toss-up as of Oct. 2. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 15. On Kalshi as of Oct. 19, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Peltola, a 74.3 percent chance of winning the seat, with Republicans, whose nominee is Sullivan, at 25.7 percent.

In 2022, Lisa Murkowski won Alaska's Class III U.S. Senate seat with about 43 percent of the vote. Democrats won Alaska's lone U.S. House seat in 2022, while Republicans won it in 2024. Donald Trump carried Alaska in the 2024 presidential election with about 55 percent of the vote.

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