What Happened?

If you work in manufacturing or buy products made with aluminum, U.S. primary aluminum production in 2025 fell to its lowest level since 1950, leaving the country outside the top 10 global producers and accounting for less than 1 percent of world output. That finding comes from a new report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress's nonpartisan research arm, titled "U.S. Aluminum Manufacturing: Industry Trends and Policy Options." ​

Only two companies, Alcoa and Century Aluminum, each operate two active smelters as of October, down from 12 companies running 23 facilities in 2000. Secondary aluminum accounted for 85 percent of the 4.3 million metric tons of unwrought aluminum produced in the U.S. in 2025. Many defense-related products must meet purity standards, and those products typically contain refined primary aluminum alloys, while secondary aluminum often contains more impurities.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

The Trump administration raised import duties on aluminum to 25 percent for all countries effective March 12, 2025, then to 50 percent for nearly all countries effective June 4, 2025. Estimated average effective duties rose from 3.8 percent in October 2024 to 37 percent in December 2025, according to the CRS report.

The Midwest Premium reached nearly 70 percent of the London Metal Exchange price in December 2025. Electricity costs compound the problem: U.S. power runs about $0.181 per kilowatt-hour, roughly 47 percent more than Canada's $0.123, based on 2019 World Bank data cited in the CRS report, and electricity can account for up to 40 percent of primary production costs.

Both Sides, Now

Supporters of rebuilding domestic production argue it would strengthen supply chains, particularly for defense. The CRS report says expanded domestic capacity might improve supply-chain resilience, but could also raise costs for manufacturers and consumers.

Opponents point to price increases already hitting businesses. Reuters reported on June 2, 2025, that the Midwest duty-paid aluminum premium had reached $0.58 per pound, up 164 percent since January 2025. Reuters also reported on Aug. 5, 2025, that Molson Coors forecast lower annual profit, citing tariff-related costs for aluminum used in beverage cans.

Two bills in the current Congress address aluminum scrap supply chains: the CANS Act of 2026, sponsored by Rep. Robert J. Wittman (R-VA), and the Secure Aluminum Supply Chains Act, sponsored by Rep. Haley M. Stevens (D-MI). Both were referred to House committees and remain at introduction with no further action. The tariff increases were executive actions; Congress did not separately authorize them.

What Happens Next?

Century Aluminum expects to break ground on the first new U.S. primary aluminum smelter since 1980, in Inola, OK, by the end of 2026, backed by a $500 million Department of Energy grant. The project is projected at 750,000 metric tons per year, which the CRS report says would increase total U.S. active smelter capacity by about 94 percent.

The CANS Act of 2026 and the Secure Aluminum Supply Chains Act would each need to clear their House committees and pass both chambers before becoming law.

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