The Winner

If you live in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ) will keep representing you after winning a third term by about 1 point. Two years ago he beat the same opponent by 9 points. The Associated Press called the race on Monday, Nov. 9, after the lead changed hands several times as counties tallied ballots. ​

Crane had 49.7% of the vote to 48.5% for Democrat Jonathan Nez in unofficial results. In 2024, Crane beat Nez 54.5% to 45.5%.

The Race

Nez is a former Navajo Nation president and would have been the first Native American to represent Arizona in Congress. Crane, a former Navy SEAL, ran unopposed for the Republican nomination in the July 21 primary. Groups backing Crane outspent those backing Nez by more than 2 to 1.

The Cook Political Report moved the race to Lean Republican in late October, while Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated it Likely Republican. Trump carried the district by about 15 points in 2024.

The district covers much of northern and eastern Arizona, including Prescott, Prescott Valley and Flagstaff. It includes all of Apache, Gila, Navajo and Yavapai counties, most of Coconino County and parts of Graham, Maricopa, Mohave and Pinal counties, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. It is also home to more than half of Arizona’s 22 federally recognized tribes, including the Arizona portion of the Navajo Nation.

About 826,300 people live in the district, which is 58.5% white and 18.2% Hispanic. The median household income is about $67,700, the median age is 42, and 26.2% of adults hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. Unemployment is 6.3%, and 16.6% of residents live below the poverty line.

What’s Next

Crane’s new term begins Sunday, Jan. 3, and Republicans will be in the minority after Democrats won control of the House. Arizona’s delegation will shift from 6-3 Republican to 5-4 Democratic. During the campaign, Crane said lowering housing costs was a priority and toured Arizona homebuilders with Housing Secretary Scott Turner.

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