Who's In the Race

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, Libertarian Jereme Lance Peters and Green Party candidate Gary Swing in the Nov. 3 general election in Arizona's 6th District. ​

Ciscomani has represented the district since 2023, having previously served as a senior adviser to Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and as vice chair of the Arizona-Mexico Commission; he attended Pima Community College and the University of Arizona, becoming the first in his family to graduate from college. He ran unopposed in the July 21 Republican primary.

Mendoza is a retired U.S. Marine who served 20 years, including as a drill instructor and deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan; she was raised in a farmworker family in Pinal County, earned a master's degree in leadership from Grand Canyon University and has worked as a nonprofit leader, veterans' advocate, congressional staffer and policy expert. She also ran unopposed in the July 21 Democratic primary.

What They Stand For

Ciscomani has supported reinstating "Remain in Mexico," dismantling cartels, and strengthening border security, according to his official House website. His House website also lists education, energy, health, veterans, and water as issues he works on. He also said that Arizona-Mexico border security is a central focus of his congressional work.

Mendoza has proposed cracking down on price gouging, modernizing the Child Tax Credit and opposing tariffs she says raise household costs, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Protecting and strengthening Social Security, with an exploration of benefit increases;
  • Reversing healthcare cuts, protecting people with pre-existing conditions, expanding Medicare's prescription-drug price negotiations and opposing privatizing Medicare;
  • Workforce training, apprenticeships and technical education, along with small businesses and good-paying local jobs; and
  • Border security at ports of entry with law-enforcement resources and legal pathways to citizenship, with enforcement that is professional and consistent with the law.

Swing has advocated an anti-war platform with sharp reductions in federal military spending, abolishing ICE, supporting "fair trade" and freedom of migration, opposing a border wall, and backing an environmentally based steady-state economy, according to a KOLD television appearance and the Arizona Mirror voter guide.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 1, Mendoza had raised about $7.4 million and had about $3.3 million in the bank, while Ciscomani had raised about $6.2 million and held about $4.1 million in cash on hand, giving him a cash advantage of roughly $875,000 despite trailing in total receipts, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Ciscomani carried no debt. Mendoza reported about $3,300 in debt, a negligible share of her receipts. Outside groups have spent $36,788 in independent expenditures on Ciscomani, with $20,000 going to support from Special Operations for America and $16,788 to opposition, including $6,476 from Youth Save Democracy PAC.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats an 84.69% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 15.

Ciscomani won the district in both 2022 and 2024, taking about 51% of the vote in 2022 and just under 50% in 2024. Republicans held six of Arizona's nine U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, while Democrats held the other three. Donald Trump carried Arizona in the 2024 presidential election with about 52% of the vote. The district's history of sub-one-point margins, combined with three major forecasters calling it a toss-up, makes Arizona's 6th one of the cycle's most closely watched House contests.

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