Who's In the Race

Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) faces Republican Daniel Butierez in the November 3 general election in Arizona's 7th District. The two are set up for a rematch after facing each other in the 2025 special election for the seat. ​

Grijalva has represented the district since 2025, having previously served on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board beginning in 2002 and on the Pima County Board of Supervisors beginning in 2020; before elected office, she spent more than 25 years at Pima County Teen Court working with court-involved youth and their families. She ran unopposed in the July 21 Democratic primary. Butierez is a Tucson-born contractor and construction worker who describes himself as a small-business owner and says he has overcome a period of homelessness and drug addiction. He also ran unopposed in the July 21 Republican primary.

What They Stand For

Grijalva has proposed abolishing ICE, which she says is "fundamentally broken," and supports a path to citizenship for DACA recipients, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Protecting and expanding the Affordable Care Act, restoring Medicaid funding, lowering prescription costs, and protecting reproductive freedom,
  • A $17 minimum wage tied to cost-of-living increases, along with utility, internet, and health-premium assistance and higher Earned Income and Child Tax Credits,
  • Protecting Arizona's water supply and Tribal water rights, clean-energy investment, and stronger environmental standards; and
  • Expanding affordable housing and down-payment assistance for first-generation homebuyers, as well as guaranteed housing assistance for people experiencing homelessness.

Butierez supports securing the southern border and giving U.S. Border Patrol the resources to do its job, his campaign website says, and he also calls for more immigration judges and faster case processing, according to Arizona Luminaria. He has also supported:

  • Cutting taxes and simplifying the tax code for small businesses,
  • Building more homes by reducing regulations and fees, speeding up permits, and using government-owned land more effectively, according to AZPM's Arizona Congressional District 7 Election Guide,
  • Approving new data centers only when they demonstrate adequate water and power supplies and pay their own infrastructure costs, along with conservation and private investment in water projects, according to Arizona Luminaria; and
  • Enforcing immigration laws with due process, according to Arizona Luminaria.

The Money Behind the Race

As of July 1, 2026, Grijalva had raised about $2.3 million and held about $428,000 in cash, more than 10 times what Butierez had raised (about $224,000) and more than 37 times Butierez's cash on hand of about $11,000. Butierez also carries about $144,000 in campaign debt, which exceeds his available cash by more than $132,000; Grijalva carries no debt. Outside groups have spent about $497,000 supporting Grijalva and about $33,000 opposing her, for a total of about $531,000 in outside spending directed entirely at her side of the race; no outside money has been reported for or against Butierez. Working Families Party PAC is the largest outside spender among the listed committees, having put about $226,000 toward supporting Grijalva.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections also rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats a 99.17% chance of winning as of Oct. 16, with Republicans at 0.83%.

The Democratic candidate won the district in each of the past two general elections, taking about 65% of the vote in 2022 and about 63% in 2024. Arizona's nine U.S. House seats split six Republican and three Democratic in 2022. Republican Donald J. Trump carried Arizona in the 2024 presidential election with about 52% of the vote.

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