Who's In the Race

Rep. French Hill (R-AR) faces Democrat Chris Jones in the November 3 general election in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District. The race is not an open seat, and it uses a standard ballot format. ​

Hill has represented the district since January 2015 and chairs the House Financial Services Committee in the 119th Congress; before that, he served in the Treasury Department and founded Delta Trust & Banking Corporation. He won the March 3 Republican primary with about 77 percent of the vote over runner-up Chase McDowell, who received about 23 percent.

Jones is a nuclear engineer, physicist, minister, and nonprofit leader who grew up in Pine Bluff and describes his work as connecting science and technology with communities across Arkansas. He won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 93 percent of the vote over runner-up Zack Huffman, who received about 7 percent.

Hill's primary margin over McDowell was 54 percentage points; Jones's margin over Huffman was 86 percentage points. The Republican primary drew 63,909 total votes, compared with 51,318 in the Democratic primary.

What They Stand For

Hill has proposed reducing health care costs through innovation, competition, and choice, along with medical-malpractice reform and health savings accounts, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Community health centers and teaching health centers to improve access in rural and underserved areas,
  • Policies restricting abortion, including a 20-week ban and limits on taxpayer funding,
  • Disrupting terrorist financing and restricting North Korea's access to global finance as part of his national-security work; and
  • Medicaid work requirements and waiving the federal diesel fuel tax, which he defended at an October debate, according to the Arkansas Advocate.

Jones has proposed making life more affordable by addressing families' cost of living, according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Stronger schools, maternal health support, addiction recovery, and food security as foundations for healthy communities,
  • Investment in early childhood education, apprenticeships, and training in technology and the trades,
  • fair maps, secure and accessible elections, and a government people can trust; and
  • Criticism of the 2025 budget law at an October debate, arguing it would cut Medicaid and food assistance and that the Rural Health Transformation Fund does not offset hospitals' financial pressures, according to the Arkansas Advocate.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Hill had raised about $4.4 million, and Jones had raised about $1.2 million, a gap of more than $3.2 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Hill's cash on hand of $2,967,541 as of June 30, 2026, was roughly 15.5 times Jones's $191,398.

Outside groups have spent about $425,297 supporting Hill, with Defend American Jobs accounting for about $418,058 of that total. No outside spending has been recorded in support of or opposition to Jones.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three independent handicappers rate this race in Republicans' favor. Cook Political Report rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 2.

On the Kalshi prediction market, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Hill, an 83.17 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15, while Democrats, whose nominee is Jones, stood at 16.83 percent.

The district's recent history reinforces that picture. Hill won the seat with about 60 percent in 2022 and about 59 percent in 2024. His vote share slipped about 1.1 percentage points between those two cycles. Republicans won all four of Arkansas's U.S. House seats in 2022. Donald Trump carried Arkansas in the 2024 presidential election with about 64 percent of the vote.

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