The Race
Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR) is seeking re-election in Arkansas's third congressional district and will face Robb Ryerse (D-AR) and Bobby Wilson (L-AR) in the Nov. 3 general election. Womack advanced unopposed in the Republican primary, while Ryerse and Wilson secured their parties' nominations on March 3. The district, which includes Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian and Washington counties, has been represented by Womack since 2011.
According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings covering activity through June 30, 2026, Womack had raised $1,871,761, while Ryerse had raised $120,526. Combined fundraising for the major-party candidates exceeded $1.99 million.
Ratings
The nation's leading election forecasters agree that Arkansas's third congressional district is unlikely to be competitive in November. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race Solid Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican. Although Sabato uses different terminology, all three organizations project Republicans will retain the seat.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets also favor Republicans by a wide margin. As of June 29, Kalshi traders gave Republicans an 82.68% probability of winning Arkansas's third congressional district, compared with 17.32% for Democrats.
Experts vs. Markets
Professional election forecasters and prediction markets point to the same likely outcome in Arkansas's third congressional district. While traditional race ratings classify the district as Solid Republican or Safe Republican, Kalshi's market assigns Republicans an 82.68% probability of victory. Both forecasting methods indicate Womack enters the general election as the clear favorite, though the prediction market assigns a higher probability of a Democratic upset than traditional race ratings imply.
---
Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article