Who's In the Race

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin in the November 3 general election in Arkansas's U.S. Senate race. ​

Cotton has served in the Senate since 2015, previously held one term in the House, and served nearly five years on active duty in the Army, including deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Shoffner is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer and small-business owner who holds a degree from Vanderbilt University and a Master of Public Service from the Clinton School; she has worked on conservation and sustainable farming and serves on the Arkansas Foodbank's board.

Cotton won the March 3 Republican primary with about 82% of the vote over runner-up Micah Ashby, who received about 9%, a margin of more than 72 percentage points. Shoffner won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 78% over Ethan Dunbar's 22%, a margin of about 57 points.

What They Stand For

Cotton says the right amount of illegal immigration is zero and supports border enforcement, according to his campaign website. He's also supported tax cuts and removing energy regulations to lower costs, strengthening the military and deterring China, Russia, Iran, and terrorist groups while protecting U.S. supply chains and technology, protecting rural hospitals and lowering prescription-drug costs while opposing government healthcare takeovers, and local control, parental rights, and school choice, with schools focused on core subjects.

Shoffner has proposed cutting taxes for working families and lowering costs for groceries, childcare, housing, and healthcare, according to her campaign website. She's also supported protecting hospitals, lowering prescription-drug prices, strengthening the Affordable Care Act, and holding insurers accountable; agricultural diversification and regional food systems, including getting Arkansas-grown food into public-school meals, strengthening Social Security and Medicare and lifting the contribution cap on high earners, and opposing "endless wars" and "blank checks," and calling for smarter government spending rather than Social Security cuts, according to KARK.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Cotton had raised about $13.6 million and held about $9.9 million in cash on hand, while Shoffner had raised about $2.3 million and held about $864,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. As of June 30, Republican Tom Cotton had $9.93 million in cash on hand, roughly 11 times the $864,000 that Democrat Hallie Shoffner had.

Outside groups have spent about $1.9 million opposing Shoffner and about $665,000 supporting Cotton, with no outside money spent supporting Shoffner or opposing Cotton as of Oct. 16. America One accounts for about $1.7 million of the roughly $1.9 million spent against Shoffner, about 90 percent of all anti-Shoffner independent expenditures; Arkansans for Democracy and Justice accounts for most of the remainder at about $180,000. America One is also the sole outside spender supporting Cotton, at about $665,000. Independent groups are spending nearly three times as much to defeat Shoffner as to help Cotton.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 12; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 15; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 94.05% chance of winning as of Oct. 16, while Democrats stood at 5.95%.

Republican John Boozman won Arkansas's other Senate seat in 2022 with about 66% of the vote. Republicans won all four of Arkansas's U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024. Donald Trump carried Arkansas in the 2024 presidential election with about 64% of the vote. The state's consistent Republican margins at every level of federal office underscore why every major handicapper has placed this race in the Solid Republican column.

---

AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article