What Happened?

If you are seeking asylum through U.S. immigration courts, your chances of being granted it have dropped to their lowest level in nearly two decades, with the defensive asylum grant rate falling to just three percent in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, down from 25 percent in fiscal 2017. A new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report examines credible fear screening and defensive asylum processes. ​

Three trends stand out:

  • Abandonments surging: Abandonment was the most common outcome in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, accounting for 92,081 cases, nearly 37 percent of all dispositions.
  • In absentia orders at a record high: Immigration judges issued 90,288 removal orders for applicants who did not appear in court during the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, the highest number reported since at least fiscal 2008.
  • Detention funding expanded: A domestic policy law enacted July 4, 2025, appropriated $45 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement for detention capacity.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

The positive credible fear determination rate fell from 80 percent in fiscal 2016 to 43 percent in fiscal 2025.

A separate proposed federal rule would extend the waiting period before asylum seekers can apply for work authorization from 150 days to 365 days, meaning applicants would wait more than twice as long before they could legally work while their case is pending.

Both Sides, Now

Under the second Trump administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) expanded expedited removal to the fullest extent authorized by 8 U.S.C. § 1225(b)(1), as outlined in a January 2025 Federal Register notice. Congress funded the large increase in detention capacity through the July 2025 domestic policy law.

AP News documented the case of Kilmar Abrego García, who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador in March 2025 despite active court proceedings and claims he faced danger there, drawing litigation and a U.S. court-ordered effort to return him.

Courts have also pushed back: a presidential proclamation suspending asylum access at the southern border was found unlawful by a federal appeals court, and separate rules restricting asylum eligibility have been vacated or are under appeal.

What Happens Next?

Two major legal questions remain unresolved: the Supreme Court has the administration's petition in *Mullin v. RAICES* pending, and appeals of the Circumvention of Lawful Pathways rule and the Securing the Border rule are still working through the Ninth Circuit and the D.C. Circuit.

The comment period on the proposed rule extending the work authorization wait to 365 days closed April 24, and as of Oct. 29, the administration had not issued a final rule.

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