Who's In the Race

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) faces Republican Kyle Kirkland in the Nov. 3 general election in California's 21st District. California uses a top-two primary system, in which the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party. The district's boundaries changed under Proposition 50, with the new congressional map in use beginning in 2026. ​

Jim Costa has represented California's 21st District in the U.S. House since 2005, and he served in the California State Assembly from 1978 to 1994. In the June 2 top-two primary, Costa took about 42 percent of the vote, with Kirkland finishing second at about 26 percent over Republican Lorenzo Rios, who received about 15 percent. Kirkland's campaign describes him as a Fresno businessman and says he launched his congressional bid in 2025.

What They Stand For

Costa has proposed advancing policies to better position the Central Valley's food systems for the future, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Expanding affordable housing, per his congressional site's dedicated housing issue page,
  • Clean energy investment, including renewable sources such as hydrogen; and
  • Agriculture and food-system priorities as a senior member of the House Agriculture Committee.

Kirkland has proposed ending what he calls "over-regulation and mismanagement" to make housing, food, gas, and healthcare more affordable, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • A "healthy market economy with limited regulation" to reduce the cost of housing, food, energy and healthcare, according to Ballotpedia,
  • Accountability, a concern he says he hears from voters; and
  • Addressing voter concerns about fraud, cost of living, and public safety, according to the Mid Valley Times.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Costa raised about $1.3 million through June 30 and had about $939,000 in cash on hand. Kirkland raised about $339,000 through June 30 and had about $17,900 in the bank, with about $33,100 in debt.

Outside groups had spent $4,952 in the race as of Oct. 13, including $4,552 opposing Costa from The Conservative Caucus DBA Americans for Constitutional Liberty and $400 from Reform Leaders PAC supporting Republican candidates, split $200 each between Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Likely Democratic" as of Oct. 9, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it "Likely Democratic" as of Oct. 11. Inside Elections rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Costa, a 94.95 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13.

Costa carried the district with about 54 percent in 2022 and about 53 percent in 2024. Democrats won 40 of California's 52 U.S. House seats in 2022. Democrat Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential election with about 58 percent of the vote.

Voters in California's 21st District can register online or by mail through Monday, Oct. 19; conditional same-day registration is available through Election Day at county elections offices and voting locations. Vote-by-mail early voting begins Monday, Oct. 5. Vote centers open in Voter's Choice Act counties on Saturday, Oct. 24, and early voting locations open throughout California on Saturday, Oct. 31. On Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

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