California 45th District Primary 2026

The votes are counted, the results are certified, and California's 45th congressional district is headed toward a November 3 general election that could help determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Democratic incumbent Derek Tran emerged with a commanding share of the vote, but the race ahead is still one that election forecasters are watching closely.

California uses what is commonly called a "top-two" or "jungle" primary system. Unlike traditional party primaries where Democrats pick their nominee and Republicans pick theirs, California puts every candidate from all parties on a single ballot. Every registered voter can participate, regardless of party affiliation. And when the votes are counted, the top two finishers advance to the general election in November, no matter which party they belong to. That means a general election can feature two Democrats, two Republicans, or—as is the case here—one candidate from each major party. The June 2 primary for the 45th district drew six candidates and produced a clear result.

Out of 160,306 total votes cast, Tran received 86,184 votes, or about 53.8% of the primary total. Finishing second was Republican challenger Chuong Vo, who received 24,591 votes, or 15.3% of the primary total. The remaining four candidates did not advance.

The Candidates

Tran has represented California's 45th congressional district since 2025. He is the first Vietnamese-American to represent California in the House. Born in Los Angeles, Tran is a California native and a member of the House Armed Services Committee, as well as the House Small Business Committee. Tran enlisted in the U.S. Army Reserve at age 18, and later received a B.S. in Economics/Finance from Bentley University, and a J.D. from Glendale University College of Law.

Vo, a Vietnamese refugee, is the former mayor of Cerritos in Los Angeles County, California, as well as a former law-enforcement officer.

The Money Behind the Race

Total fundraising across all candidates in the race reached approximately $7.17 million. Outside spending, meaning the money spent by independent groups and political action committees as opposed to the campaigns themselves, totaled roughly $17,500 as of mid-June. Among the outside groups active in the race were Health Care Saves Lives, Orange County PAC, Americans for Constitutional Liberty, GiveGreen United Action, and Planned Parenthood-affiliated committees. According to FEC filings, Tran lead the candidates' financial totals with more than $4.2 million in total receipts.

Odds vs Ratings

The CA-45 congressional race is rated "lean Democratic" by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball as of June 18. This means forecasters believe Tran has a meaningful advantage, but the seat is not considered safely out of reach for Vo.

Prediction market data tells a similar story. As of July 13, 2026, Kalshi placed the probability of a Democratic win at 89%, leaving some room for a possible Republican upset.

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