Who's In the Race

Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) faces Republican Ricardo Cabrera in the Nov. 3 general election in California's 51st District. California's voter-nominated offices advance only the top two primary vote-getters, regardless of party, to the general election. California Proposition 50 changed the district's boundaries for the 2026 election. ​

Jacobs represented California's 53rd District from 2021 to 2023 and has represented the 51st District since 2023. Before joining Congress, she worked at the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations and in UNICEF's Innovation Unit. In the June 2 top-two primary, she took about 58 percent of the vote; Cabrera finished second with about 37 percent, ahead of two other Democratic candidates. Cabrera is a first-time candidate for public office, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.

What They Stand For

Jacobs has proposed bold climate action, according to her campaign website. She has also supported ending gun violence in schools and communities, housing that is affordable for everyone, health care as a human right, and defending access to reproductive care.

Cabrera has proposed congressional term limits and stronger ethics standards for elected officials, according to his campaign website. He has also supported fiscal responsibility, a government that serves the people, lower costs of living, and safer communities.

The Money Behind the Race

Jacobs raised about $1.6 million through June 30, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, and had about $269,000 in cash on hand. As of June 30, she carried $350,000 in debt and $269,452 in cash on hand. Outside spending in the race totaled $ 8.08 million as of Oct. 13, all of it supporting Jacobs, with the Planned Parenthood Action Fund of the Pacific Southwest PAC as the top spender.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections also called it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Jacobs, a 98.2 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13.

Jacobs won California's 51st District with about 62 percent in 2022 and about 61 percent in 2024. Democrats held 40 of California's 52 U.S. House seats after 2022 and expanded that to 43 after 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried California with about 58 percent of the vote.

Voters in the district can register to vote through Monday, Oct. 19; conditional registration is available from Tuesday, Oct. 20 through Election Day. Early voting at San Diego County vote centers runs Saturday, Oct. 24 through Tuesday, Nov. 3, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Polls on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

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