The Race
California's 12th Congressional District is heading toward a heavily favored Democratic outcome this November. The race features incumbent Lateefah Simon running for reelection in a district rated Solid Democratic. Two candidates advanced to the general election ballot following the June primary, setting up a contest scheduled for November 3.
The Candidates
Simon is the sitting representative for the district. She raised $1,449,191.49 in total campaign receipts as of June 30 and held $777,590 in cash on hand as of June 30.
Jamie Joyce, the Republican challenger, trails behind Simon in funding totals. As of June 30, Joyce has raised $31,127 in total receipts, according to FEC filings.
Ratings vs. Odds
The 2026 U.S. House race for California's 12th District is rated as Solid Democratic.
Prediction markets align decisively with that assessment. Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, pegged the Democratic candidate's winning probability at 96 percent as of July 28.
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