Who's In the Race

Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-CA) faces Republican Charles Hoelter in the Nov. 3 general election in California's 15th District. California uses a top-two primary, in which the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party, and the district's boundaries changed under Proposition 50, with new congressional maps taking effect in 2026. ​

Mullin has represented the district in the U.S. House since 2023, previously serving in the California State Assembly. In the June 2 top-two primary, he took 65 percent of the vote, while Republican Hoelter finished second with 18.4 percent. Hoelter earned a bachelor's degree from San Francisco State University in 1989 and has worked as a supervisor.

What They Stand For

Mullin has proposed reducing the cost of living for Californians, including costs tied to healthcare, utility bills, gas, housing, and childcare, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Guaranteeing access to affordable healthcare as a human right, regardless of income,
  • Creating an Office of Eviction Prevention within the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and funding conversion of unused hotels and other properties into shelters and transitional housing; and
  • Protecting voting rights and election systems, saying democracy "is America's most precious asset."

Hoelter supports term limits for politicians, voter ID requirements, and keeping men out of women's sports, according to Ballotpedia, while his campaign emphasizes border security, lower taxes, parental rights, and support for law enforcement, according to the San Francisco Standard's voter guide.

The Money Behind the Race

Kevin Mullin raised about $820,000 through June 30 and had about $220,000 in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. Charles Hoelter reported no receipts or cash on hand in FEC filings.

Outside spending in the race totaled just over $500, all of it backing Mullin, as of Oct. 13, according to the race record. The largest spender was the Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club Federal PAC, which put in about $490 in support of Mullin.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 11, as did Inside Elections as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Mullin, a 95.61 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13.

Mullin won the district with about 55 percent in 2022 and about 73 percent in 2024. Democrats held a commanding majority of California's 52 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, winning 40 seats in 2022 and 43 in 2024. Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential election with about 58 percent of the vote.

Voters in California's 15th District must register by Monday, Oct. 19, to participate in the Nov. 3 general election, according to the California Secretary of State. Same-day conditional registration is available from Tuesday, Oct. 20 through Election Day, allowing voters to register and cast a provisional ballot during that period. Polls are open on Tuesday, Nov. 3 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

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