The Race

Democrat Sam Liccardo, the incumbent representative, faces Republican Peter Soule in California's 16th Congressional District on November 3, 2026. Liccardo dominated the June primary with 75.6% of the vote, 139,232 ballots, while Soulé finished second with 10.8% and 19,820 votes.

Ratings

Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated this district as "Solid Democratic" as of mid-June 2026. The rating reflects the district's lean and Liccardo's incumbency advantage—a powerful combination that the experts view as nearly insurmountable for a challenger.

Prediction Markets

As of June 29, 2026, prediction markets give Liccardo a 95.93% probability of winning, while Soule sits at just 4.07%. The market is essentially pricing in a Liccardo victory as near-certain.

Experts vs. Markets

The expert raters and the election betting markets both view this as a Democratic stronghold with minimal Republican upside.

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