Who's In the Race

Rep. Vince Fong (R-CA) faces Democrat Sandra Van Scotter in the Nov. 3 general election in California's 20th Congressional District. California uses a top-two primary system, in which the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party. The district's boundaries changed following voter approval of Proposition 50 on Nov. 5, 2025. ​

Fong has represented the district since 2024 and previously served in the California State Assembly from 2016 until 2024. He took about 68 percent of the vote in the June 2 top-two primary.

Van Scotter worked as a respiratory therapist for 20 years and has been active as a health-care advocate. She advanced from the primary with about 29 percent of the vote, finishing ahead of two other candidates.

What They Stand For

Fong has called for responsible domestic energy production to lower costs and support energy independence, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • lower taxes and fewer burdensome regulations, and his campaign says free markets and competition are key,
  • Limiting government overreach; and
  • arguing that one-party Democratic rule in California has contributed to rising crime, budget issues, homelessness and inflation.

Van Scotter has proposed amending the Constitution to make Medicare a right and removing health care from partisan politics, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Recognizing the district's agricultural economy as dependent on immigrant labor; and
  • An "honest conversation" about immigrant workers already living and working in the region.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this a safe Republican hold. The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Fong, a 95.5 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13; Democrats, whose nominee is Van Scotter, stood at 4.5 percent.

Republicans have won this district by wide margins in each of the last two cycles: Kevin McCarthy took about 67 percent in 2022, and Fong won about 65 percent in 2024. Statewide, Democrats held a commanding advantage in California's U.S. House delegation, winning 40 of 52 seats in 2022 and 43 of 52 in 2024. Democrat Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential election with about 58 percent of the vote.

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