Primary Results

California's 22nd Congressional District race heads into November as one of the most closely watched contests on the map, with nearly $3 million in outside spending already on the books and two nominees who emerged from a primary that saw more money spent against one Democratic candidate than in support of the Republican incumbent.

A June 2 top-two primary was held among three candidates. Republican David Valadao, the district's incumbent, led the field with 32,491 votes, or 40.7 percent. Democrat Randy Villegas finished second with 25,808 votes, or 32.4 percent, advancing to the November general election. The results are certified.

A third candidate, Democrat Jasmeet Bains, does not appear among the race's nominees. The race record does not indicate whether Bains finished third or otherwise account for the remaining vote share, and it does not identify the certified nominees.

Outside Spending

The primary's outside spending story was as much about Democratic-on-Democratic combat as it was about the general election matchup taking shape. Of the $2.97 million in primary outside spending tracked, $844,000, or 28 percent, went toward opposing candidates, with Villegas absorbing the bulk of that opposition fire.

Top Spenders

  • Project 218 (SuperPAC) was the single largest primary spender at $869,300, directing all of it in support of Bains.
  • New Democrat Majority (SuperPAC) spent $757,800 opposing Villegas, placing television advertising through GPS Impact in the final weeks of the primary.
  • 314 Action Fund (Hybrid PAC) was the most active multi-directional spender, at $667,200 total. It put $600,000 in support of Bains while also spending $209,400 opposing Valadao and $9,400 opposing Villegas, with advertising placed through Technicolor Campaigns.
  • BDA PAC (Hybrid PAC) spent $600,000 opposing Villegas, placing media advertising through Targeted Media Platform LLC.
  • DMFI PAC (Hybrid PAC) spent $500,300 in support of Bains, with television advertising placed through Strategic Placement Media.
  • Working Families Party PAC (Hybrid PAC) spent $565,900 in support of Villegas, deploying television, digital, and direct mail through LC Media LLC and other vendors. The committee also spent $17,800 opposing Bains through the same advertising buy.
  • American Priorities (SuperPAC) spent $450,000 total, with $112,000 in support of Villegas, $280,000 opposing Bains, and $8,000 opposing Valadao, all through LC Media.
  • Health Care Saves Lives (SuperPAC) spent $487,300, directing $410,900 in opposition to Villegas through television, digital, and radio advertising placed by Armour Evans Media LLC, while also spending $76,400 in support of Bains.
  • Leaders We Deserve (Hybrid PAC) spent $450,200 in support of Villegas, primarily through direct mail production and postage paid to Strategic Media Advisors.
  • National Nurses United for Patient Protection (SuperPAC) spent $400,000 in support of Villegas, placing television advertising through Middle Seat.

Outside Spending Picture

Valadao received comparatively little outside spending during the primary. The race record shows $152,900 in support and $451,800 in opposition directed at the incumbent. The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) placed direct mail in support of Valadao through Swing Strategies, while 314 Action Fund and American Priorities were among those spending in opposition. Activate America, a SuperPAC, filed expenditures tagged to the general election opposing Valadao beginning as early as March 2025, though those filings are modest in total.

All candidates in the race had raised a combined $9.17 million as of Aug. 19, according to Federal Election Commission records.

General Election Spending

No formal general election independent expenditure notices, or 24/48-hour filings, appear in the data for the post-primary period. The only activity tagged to the general election cycle is a series of small disbursements by Activate America, a SuperPAC, opposing Valadao. Those filings, which cover voter data, postcards, text banking, and phone banking, total approximately $3,300 and were made between March 2025 and April 2026, well before the primary. No committee has filed a large-scale general election commitment as of the data's coverage.

The race's overall outside spending total, including primary and general election activity, stands at $8.45 million as of Aug. 20, with an additional $400,500 in pending notices not yet reflected in periodic totals.

District Profile

California's 22nd District covers a swath of the Central Valley with a population of approximately 780,759. The district is 74.2 percent Hispanic, with a 31.9 percent white population and smaller Black (4.5 percent) and Asian (3.8 percent) shares.

The district's economic profile is a defining feature of its politics. Median household income stands at $58,828, and the poverty rate is 22.7 percent. The unemployment rate is 10.1 percent. Only 10.2 percent of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher, though 66.8 percent have at least a high school diploma.

The district's median age is 30.6 years, and 26.6 percent of residents are foreign-born. Owner-occupied housing sits at 52.9 percent, and 9.8 percent of residents lack health insurance.

Race Ratings and Prediction Markets

Heading into November, outside handicappers are split on the race's competitiveness. The Cook Political Report rates the seat a toss-up as of Aug. 13. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Lean Democratic" as of the same date. The consensus rating, as of Aug. 17, is toss-up.

On Kalshi, the prediction market assigned a Democratic win probability of 84.69 percent and a Republican win probability of 15.31 percent as of Aug. 20, based on $50,644 in market volume. Those figures reflect market sentiment, not polling, and are attributed to Kalshi.

General Election Outlook

The race enters the general election period rated a toss-up by the consensus of outside handicappers, even as Kalshi's prediction market assigns a substantially higher probability to the Democratic nominee. The primary produced a certified matchup between Valadao, the incumbent, and Villegas, the Democratic nominee, with no large-scale general election outside spending commitments yet on file. With the district's demographics and economic conditions making it a perennial battleground, the contest is positioned to draw significant additional resources from both parties before the general election.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article