The Race
Republican Jay Obernolte is defending his seat in California's 23rd U.S. House District against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge. Obernolte secured his spot with 57.1% of the votes, with Hodge trailing behind with 21.3% in the June 2 primary.
Ratings
The heavyweight forecasters have spoken, and they're unified. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this race as Solid and Safe Republican, meaning the incumbent has a commanding structural advantage.
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket say Republicans command 90.7% odds of holding the seat, while Democrats sit at just 9.3%.
Experts vs. Markets
The expert raters and the bettors are saying the same thing: this is Obernolte's seat.
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