Show Us The Money
Democrat Judy Chu is running for reelection in California's 28th U.S. House District against Republican April Verlato. The general election is November 3, 2026. Chu dominated the June 2 primary with 62.2% of the vote, while Verlato came in second with 32.1%. All signs point to a lopsided race, but let's see what the data actually says.
Ratings
The consensus is crystal clear. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate this district as Solid Democratic. Translation: Democrats own this seat. Verlato would need a political earthquake to flip it.
Prediction Markets
Betting markets on Kalshi as of late June give the Democratic candidate a 91.85% probability of winning, nearly 9 in 10 odds. That's not just confidence; that's conviction. The Republican gets just 8.15% of the betting action. Money doesn't lie, and the smart money sees this one heading Chu's way.
Experts vs. Markets
Here's the beautiful part: the experts and the bettors are reading from the same playbook. The midterm race ratings say "Solid Democratic." The Kalshi Polymarket odds say "91.85% Democratic." No daylight between them. This is rare consensus in an era of political fragmentation.
The primary results backed it up. Chu pulled 116,321 votes to Verlato's 60,020, a 30-point spread in a field of candidates. Outside spending tells the same story: all $221,860 in Super PAC money supported Chu. Courage California Super PAC led the charge with $155,560, while Planned Parenthood's Los Angeles County Action Fund chipped in another $49,690.
When prediction markets and expert congressional race predictions align this cleanly, it usually means one thing: the race is over before November. Chu's seat is as safe as seats get. Unless something seismic happens between now and Election Day, expect her to cruise to victory. The betting markets, the expert raters, and the primary voters all agree: this district is staying blue.
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