The Race
Democratic incumbent Jimmy Gomez is running for re-election in California's 34th U.S. House District, facing off against Democrat Angela Gonzales-Torres in the general election on Nov. 3. Gomez dominated the June 2 primary with 46.4% of the vote, while Gonzales-Torres came in second with 26.4%, setting up a rare all-Democratic general election in a heavily blue district.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report consensus is crystal clear: this district is rated as Solid Democratic. It means the district leans so heavily Democratic that the Republican candidate, or in this case, any non-Democratic challenger, faces an uphill climb that borders on impossible.
Prediction Markets
As of late June, Kalshi gave the Democratic candidate a 99.49% probability of winning the general election.
Experts vs. Markets
The Cook Political Report's "Solid Democratic" assessment perfectly aligns with Kalshi's 99.49% Democratic victory probability.
The Solid Democratic rating predicted exactly what the prediction markets vs. polls data showed, a race that's essentially decided before Election Day.
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