Who's In the Race

Democrat Hilda Solis faces Republican Pedro Antonio Casas in the November 3 general election for California's 38th U.S. House District. The seat is open because Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-CA), who held the district, chose to run for the newly redrawn 41st District instead, leaving no incumbent on the ballot. Proposition 50 redrew the district's boundaries, reshaping California's congressional map beginning this year. ​

Solis represented California in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2009, served as U.S. Secretary of Labor from 2009 to 2013, and has sat on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors since 2014. She led the June 2 top-two primary with about 48 percent of the vote, with Casas finishing second at about 36 percent, according to the California Secretary of State.

Casas is a retired U.S. Army colonel with more than 29 years of service, including three deployments to theaters of war, and holds a Ph.D. in counseling psychology, working as a clinical, forensic, and aerospace-medical psychologist.

What They Stand For

Solis has proposed lowering costs for working- and middle-class families through tax relief and reduced childcare and health care expenses, according to the Daily News candidate comparison. She has also supported extending federal housing investments, including the low-income housing tax credit, with the federal government acting as "a stronger partner" in affordability, reversing cuts to Medicare and Medicaid; and expanding Medicare's ability to negotiate drug prices.

Casas has proposed securing the southern border and immigration reform that prioritizes national security, according to his campaign website. He has also supported reducing taxes and cutting red tape for small businesses to address inflation and stimulate economic growth, strengthening public safety and holding offenders accountable, private-school vouchers and restricting biological men from competing in women's sports, and opposing "Medicare for All" and any expansion of Medicare, according to the Daily News.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Solis had raised about $1,049,534 and had about $154,503 in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Casas's campaign record shows total receipts of $0. Outside groups spent about $367,531 supporting Solis, with all of it coming from Protect Progress, the sole outside spender on record.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections also called it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats a 97.83 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15; Republicans stood at 2.17 percent.

Democrat Linda Sánchez won the seat with about 60 percent of the vote in 2024 and about 58 percent in 2022. Statewide, Democrats won 43 of California's 52 U.S. House seats in 2024 and 40 of 52 in 2022, reflecting the state's strong Democratic lean at the congressional level. In the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris carried California with about 58 percent of the vote.

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