California 40th House District Race

Young Kim is the Republican incumbent seeking reelection in California's 40th U.S. House District, facing Democrat Esther Kim Varet in a general election scheduled for November 3. The primary, held on June 2, narrowed a crowded field down to these two finalists, but the district is one of California's most reliably Republican.

The Candidates

Kim, born in South Korea, has represented California's 40th congressional district in the House for only one term, previously having represented California's 39th district from 2021 to 2023. She serves on the House Financial Services Committee as well as the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and received her bachelor's degree in business administration from the University of Southern California.

Varet is the granddaughter of a North Korean refugee, and was raised in Texas. The first in her high school to attend an Ivy League university, Varet received her bachelor's degree from Yale University in art history, and continued her work as a masters student at Columbia University. Varet's campaign focuses on environmental policy, family planning, education, and small business protections.

The Money Behind the Race

In the primary, Kim lead the candidates' financial totals, according to the FEC as of May 13, with about $8.2 million in total receipts. She was closely followed by another Republican contender, Ken Calvert, who recorded more than $5.7 million in total receipts but failed to advance beyond the primary. Varet came in third in terms of funding, with almost $3 million in total receipts.

Outside spending amounted to a total of more than $5 million, with the largest donation (around $2.4 million) spent in opposition to Kim's campaign. The second-largest donation was also made in opposition to Kim's campaign, and amounted to a total of more than $1 million. Interestingly enough, it was given by the California Conservatives PAC, despite the fact that Kim herself is a Republican representative.

Other major donors contributing to outside spending in the race included the Americans 4 Security PAC, the California Blue PAC, and the America's Credit Unions PAC.

Ratings vs Odds

Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the district as "solid Republican" as of mid-June. Barring a major upset, Kim is predicted to take the seat in November.

Prediction markets are telling a similar story. As of July 15, Kalshi gave Republicans a 96.5% chance of winning, with Democrats standing at just 3.5%.

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