Who's In the Race

Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., faces fellow Republican Ken Calvert in the November 3 general election in California's 40th District. Proposition 50's redrawn district map placed two Republican incumbents, Rep. Young Kim and Rep. Ken Calvert, in the same newly defined 40th District. ​

Kim serves on the House Financial Services and Foreign Affairs committees and chairs the East Asia and Pacific Subcommittee; her official biography describes her as an immigrant and one of the first Korean American women to serve in Congress. In the June 2 top-two primary, Calvert received about 35 percent of the vote to Kim's about 21 percent, a gap of about 14 percentage points.

Varet received about 17 percent in the same primary, with Democrat Lisa Ramirez as the runner-up among Democrats at about 14 percent. He is a small-business owner and entrepreneur who studied history and art at Yale and pursued doctoral studies in art history at Columbia University, according to her campaign website.

Calvert has served in Congress since 1993 and chairs the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, according to his official House website.

What They Stand For

Kim has proposed fighting "against misguided regulatory and fiscal policies" to bring jobs and economic freedom to the district, according to her official House website. She's also supported:

  • Legal immigration pathways, secure borders, and modern technology for Customs and Border Protection,
  • Compassionate treatment of DACA recipients within a framework that upholds the rule of law,
  • Protecting people with pre-existing conditions while opposing a single-payer health care system; and
  • Prioritizing patient choice and reforming programs to reduce prescription-drug and medical-treatment costs.

Calvert has described "the defense of our nation" as his top priority, according to his official House website.

Varet has proposed making quality health care accessible and lowering costs for middle-class families, according to her campaign website. She also supports:

  • Having Medicare negotiate drug prices and ending "Pay-to-Delay" arrangements that keep generic medicines off the market,
  • Protecting and expanding Social Security benefits, including raising cost-of-living adjustments and removing the maximum taxable earnings cap,
  • Science-based solutions to address pollution and climate change; and
  • Keeping abortion, contraception, and IVF decisions between a woman and her doctor.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Kim had raised about $8.8 million and had about $1.7 million in cash on hand, while Calvert had raised about $6.1 million with about $1.5 million on hand; Varet had raised about $2.9 million, roughly one-third of Kim's total, and had about $255,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Varet carried about $524,000 in debt through that date, more than twice her cash on hand.

Outside groups have spent about $4.5 million opposing Kim and about $882,000 supporting her, a gap of roughly $3.7 million; Americans 4 Security PAC led the opposition with about $3.2 million spent against her, followed by California Conservatives PAC with about $1.3 million.

Outside groups have spent about $1.1 million supporting Varet, with California Blue PAC the largest backer at about $702,000 and Western Blue PAC contributing about $350,000.

Outside groups have spent about $581,000 opposing Calvert, with CFF accounting for about $574,000 of that total.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Republicans, whose nominees are Kim and Calvert, a 96.2 percent chance of holding the seat as of Sept. 5, while Democrats stood at 3.8 percent.

Kim won the district in both 2022 and 2024, taking about 57 percent in 2022 and about 55 percent in 2024, a dip of about 1.6 percentage points. Democrats hold 43 of California's 52 U.S. House seats after the 2024 elections, up from 40 after 2022, with Republicans holding nine seats. Democrat Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential election with about 58 percent of the vote.

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