The Race
Derek Tran, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to hold California's 45th House District in the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026. Tran dominated the June 2, 2026 primary with a commanding 53.8% of the vote, while Republican Chuong Vo captured 15.3%.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate California's 45th as Lean/Tilt Democratic.
Prediction Markets
According to Kalshi odds as of June 29, 2026, Democrats have an 87.25% win probability in this race, while Republicans sit at just 12.75%.
Experts vs. Markets
The experts and markets agree this seat will likely stay blue, the markets slightly more confident than the experts.
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