Who's In the Race

Republican Jim Desmond faces Democrat Marni von Wilpert in the November 3 general election in California's 48th District. The seat is open as incumbent Rep. Darrell Edward Issa (R-CA) is retiring, according to the Los Angeles Times. Proposition 50 redrew the district before this election, adding nearly 200,000 voters, the Times reported Oct. 1. ​

Desmond is a San Diego County Supervisor, a U.S. Navy veteran and a retired Delta Air Lines pilot who spent 33 years with the airline; before the supervisorship, he served 12 years as mayor of San Marcos.

Von Wilpert is a San Diego City Councilmember and a former prosecutor in the San Diego City Attorney's Office; she also served as a Peace Corps volunteer in Botswana and as counsel to the House Education and Labor Committee.

What They Stand For

Desmond has proposed lowering taxes and reducing overregulation to make life more affordable for families and seniors, according to his campaign website. He's also supported streamlining federal permitting rules that drive up the cost and time of building homes, while giving local communities more flexibility to expand housing supply, securing the border while providing a workable legal immigration process, and addressing homelessness through treatment for mental illness and addiction, paired with accountability and public safety measures.

Von Wilpert has proposed expanding the Affordable Care Act, restoring ACA tax credits, creating a public option and expanding Medicare's ability to negotiate prescription drug prices, according to her campaign website. She has also supported making it easier to build affordable homes, expanding housing down-payment grants and passing the PRO Act to strengthen workers' rights to organize and bargain, codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law and protecting access to reproductive care, gun-violence prevention measures including universal background checks, a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, and stronger red-flag laws, and defending immigrants from what she describes as unlawful conduct by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, while backing secure borders and legal pathways to citizenship for long-term residents and Dreamers.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Desmond had raised about $2.26 million and had about $1.23 million in the bank, roughly half again as much cash as von Wilpert, who had raised about $2.17 million and held about $825,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Von Wilpert carried about $67,000 in campaign debt as of that date, compared with about $7,170 for Desmond. Outside groups have spent about $2.17 million supporting von Wilpert, including $900,000 from Project 218, and about $339,000 opposing Desmond, including about $338,000 from the 48th Accountability Project.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democratic as of Oct. 9, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 11. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats a 92.27 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15. That outlook marks a sharp turn for a district Republicans held with about 60 percent of the vote in both 2022 and 2024, and it comes despite Desmond leading von Wilpert nearly two-to-one in the June primary.

Darrell Issa won the 2024 race with about 59 percent and the 2022 race with about 60 percent. Statewide, Democrats won 43 of California's 52 U.S. House seats in 2024, and Republicans won nine. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried California with about 58 percent of the vote.

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