Who's In the Race

Rep. Juan Vargas (D-CA) faces Republican Jeff Belle in the Nov. 3 general election in California's 52nd District. The district's boundaries changed for the 2026 election after voters approved Proposition 50. ​

Vargas has represented the district since 2013, previously serving in the California State Senate and State Assembly and working as a corporate executive at Safeco Insurance and Liberty Mutual Group. Belle's campaign describes him as a Navy veteran and former elected official, while the San Diego Union-Tribune described him as a financial professional.

What They Stand For

Vargas has called for action on sewage pollution in the Tijuana River Valley, saying it harms public health, local economies, and ecosystems, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Fighting climate change and protecting clean air and water,
  • Gun violence prevention.

Belle has proposed increasing housing supply, speeding approvals, and making it easier to build starter homes, apartments near transit, and affordable housing, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • "Secure borders, faster legal immigration, [and] due process in asylum," according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Vargas had raised about $569,000 and had about $164,000 in the bank, dwarfing Belle, who had raised about $25,000 and had about $1,364 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Belle carried $7,000 in debt as of that date, more than a quarter of his total receipts.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Vargas, a 95.28% chance of winning as of Oct. 14.

Vargas carried the district with about 67% of the vote in 2022 and about 66% in 2024. Democrats won 43 of California's 52 U.S. House seats in 2024, while Republicans won 9. Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential election with about 58% of the vote.

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