The Race
Tom McClintock's Republican stronghold in California's 5th U.S. House District is shaping up as a rout: at least, that's what both prediction markets and polls are telling us. The incumbent crushed his June primary, and now the race heads toward the November 3 general election with McClintock facing Democratic nominee Michael Masuda in a contest that looks decided before votes are even cast.
McClintock dominated the June 2 primary with 129,644 votes, a commanding 61.3% of the field. Masuda, his general election opponent, finished second with 51,407 votes, or 24.3%, in a seven-candidate race that drew 211,520 total votes.
Experts
The midterm race ratings are unanimous: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify California's 5th as "Solid Republican."
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, prediction markets gave Republicans an 87% probability of holding the seat, with Democrats at just 13%. That 15,869-unit trading volume on Kalshi shows real money backing that GOP confidence.
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