Who's In the Race
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton will face each other in California's governor's race on Nov. 3. The seat is open because Gavin Newsom, who won the 2022 governor's race, is not running for reelection in 2026.
California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates regardless of party appear on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. In the June 2 primary, Becerra took 28 percent of the vote and Hilton took 25 percent, advancing both to the general election. Becerra finished about 315,000 votes ahead of Hilton among the 9.2 million cast. Hilton edged out third-place finisher Tom Steyer by about 166,000 votes to claim the second general-election spot.
Endorsements
Becerra has drawn support from the state's most prominent Democratic figures. Newsom endorsed Becerra for the general election, giving the Democratic nominee a boost from the outgoing governor whose coalition he is seeking to inherit.
On the Republican side, Hilton has secured backing from the top of the national party. Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, and Vice President JD Vance also backed Hilton.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling
Every major race-rating service puts California firmly in the Democratic column. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball each updated their ratings to Solid Democratic on Oct. 28, while Inside Elections and the consensus rating were updated to Solid Democratic on Oct. 23.
The polling picture reinforces that assessment. A Legis1 polling average as of Oct. 19 showed Becerra leading Hilton 57 percent to 36 percent, a margin of 21 points. A lead of that size, sustained across multiple polls, would be difficult to overcome in the roughly six weeks remaining before Election Day. For Hilton to close the gap, he would need a dramatic shift in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
Previous Elections
California's recent voting history underscores the scale of the challenge facing any Republican statewide candidate. In the 2024 presidential election, California voted for Democrat Kamala D. Harris, who received 58 percent of the vote to Republican Donald J. Trump's 38 percent, a 20-point margin that tracks closely with Becerra's current polling lead. In the 2022 governor's race, Newsom defeated Republican Brian Dahle by about 2 million votes.
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