The Race
Incumbent Democrat Joe Neguse is running for reelection in Colorado's second U.S. House District, a Solid Democratic seat. He'll face Republican Kelley Dennison, who won her primary with 58.4% of the vote. The showdown is Nov. 3, 2026.
Ratings
Neguse dominated his party's primary on June 30, 2026, winning with 100% of the vote—the kind of coronation that tells you everything about his standing with Democrats. On the Republican side, Dennison edged out Christina Blunt, who pulled 41% of the vote, in a more competitive matchup that signaled some GOP appetite for alternatives.
Prediction Markets
Here's where it gets interesting: prediction markets and expert ratings agree. As of June 29, betting markets gave the Democratic candidate a 93.19% probability of winning, while the Republican candidate sat at just 6.81%. The consensus midterm race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all align on one assessment: Solid Democratic.
Experts vs. Markets
Both point to the same conclusion: Neguse is heavily favored to keep his seat. A 93% win probability isn't a toss-up; it's a one-way ticket.
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