What Happened?

If you run a commercial space company, you could demonstrate that a spacecraft falling out of orbit meets certain safety requirements by showing it would break apart sufficiently, rather than completing a lengthy casualty calculation. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed a new rule for spacecraft returning from orbit Nov. 9, according to a Legis1 review of the proposed rule. ​

The option would apply only to an "uncontrolled atmospheric return." The proposal defines that as a passive descent from orbit caused by natural orbital decay, with no ability to control the vehicle's trajectory. It would not apply to controlled returns.

Currently, operators must protect against a single event that could cause multiple casualties in one of three ways:

  • Flight abort: The operator can stop a flight that goes wrong.
  • Casualty limit: Any reasonably foreseeable failure must stay at or below 1 × 10⁻³ conditional expected casualties.
  • Proven reliability: The operator demonstrates that the vehicle is sufficiently reliable.

The FAA says the first and third options are not practical for uncontrolled returns, leaving operators with the casualty calculation. The proposal would add another option: demonstrating that a failure results in sufficient breakup of the vehicle, its components and undeployed payloads to protect against an event that could cause multiple casualties.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

If you are applying for a launch or reentry license involving an uncontrolled atmospheric return, the FAA estimates the change would save approximately $5,777 in industry labor per application, based on 60 hours of aerospace engineer time. The FAA would save $3,897 in review costs, based on 30 hours of review time.

Together, that amounts to an estimated $9,674 in savings per affected application. The FAA expects about 40 new license applications over the next five years, although fewer would be affected by the proposal. The FAA says operators could demonstrate sufficient breakup using debris and consequence analyses they already must submit.

Both Sides, Now

The FAA says the proposed alternative "provides an equivalent level of safety to the current requirements." A potential concern is that allowing operators to rely on sufficient breakup rather than the conditional expected casualty calculation could weaken protections if debris from uncontrolled returns survives reentry and reaches populated areas. The FAA maintains that operators would still have to satisfy existing individual and collective risk requirements and demonstrate that each surviving piece of debris has a sufficiently small effective casualty area to make multiple casualties unlikely.

CNN reported that NASA confirmed a piece of equipment discarded from the International Space Station survived reentry on March 8, 2024, and struck a house in Naples, Florida. The Aerospace Corporation reported that a 23-metric-ton rocket stage reentered Earth's atmosphere without control on July 30, 2022. Forbes described rocket debris found in at least two villages in Ivory Coast in May 2020.

The proposal follows an executive order, "Enabling Competition in the Commercial Space Industry," issued Aug. 13, 2025. It directed the transportation secretary to reevaluate, amend or rescind commercial launch and reentry licensing regulations.

What Happens Next?

The FAA says it may revise the proposal after reviewing public comments. Comments can be submitted through Regulations.gov under docket FAA-2026-9942, or by mail to Docket Operations, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, West Building, 5th Floor (W58-213), Washington, DC 20590-0001. Comments are due Dec. 9.

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