Who's In the Race

Connecticut's 5th U.S. House District heads to a general election on Nov. 3, with the incumbent Democratic nominee being Jahana Hayes, who advanced through a certified Democratic primary on Aug. 11. The Republican nominee is Chris Shea, who won a three-way Republican primary on Aug. 11 with 10,261 votes out of 12,672 cast, roughly 81 percent of the total. [](#ngr-8c6a3fc0-ab36-43d7-b271-413c48911b6f)

What They Stand For

Hayes centers her campaign on healthcare, education, reproductive rights, climate, and food security. On healthcare, she supports Medicare for All and has pushed to cap prescription drug costs and end surprise billing. She voted to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits and to pass legislation that would write the right to abortion into federal law, framing the Supreme Court's reversal of *Roe v. Wade* as a rollback of 50 years of precedent.

A former public school teacher, Hayes lists equitable access to quality public education and increased federal education funding among her top priorities, and has introduced the Beginning Educator Mentorship Act. On climate, she voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which she describes as "the single largest climate investment in the history of our nation," and supports clean vehicle tax credits and directing climate spending toward communities most affected by pollution.

She has also introduced legislation to remove barriers to free school lunch programs and to expand equitable access to U.S. Department of Agriculture programs for Connecticut's dairy farms and family farms.

Shea leads with lowering the cost of living, framing his campaign around the tagline "Lowering Costs. Growing Wages. Protecting America." He calls for policies that reduce energy costs, cut the tax burden on residents, and create "practical housing solutions" to make Connecticut more affordable. Border security is a central plank: he advocates for securing the southern border, enforcing existing immigration laws, and fully funding Border Patrol, connecting those goals to blocking drugs and crime from entering communities.

Shea, a retired Navy SEAL and current North Haven Fire Department lieutenant and paramedic, highlights support for veterans and first responders as a defining issue. He founded the nonprofit Hero to Hero to help veterans move into first-responder careers, and frames that experience as direct preparation for legislating on veterans' issues. He also calls for cutting "wasteful spending in Washington" and reducing regulatory barriers as part of a pro-worker, pro-business agenda.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have reported $140.34 in total independent expenditures in this race, all of it in support of candidates, none opposing anyone. Every dollar of that outside spending targets the Democratic side of the race, directed in support of Hayes.

The two committees behind that spending are GiveGreen United Action, which accounts for $130, and Sierra Club Independent Action, which accounts for $10. The outside-spending figures reflect Federal Election Commission filings through Sept. 21, with notices through Sept. 24.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three major race-rating outlets all call this contest Solid Democratic: the Cook Political Report as of Sept. 11, Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Sept. 22, and Inside Elections as of Sept. 17.

On Kalshi, the prediction market gave the Democratic candidate a 99 percent probability of winning as of Sept. 24, against 1.07 percent for the Republican.

Democrats won all five U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, and won the state's U.S. Senate race in 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris carried Connecticut with about 56 percent of the vote.

The 5th District itself has been among the state's tightest contests: Hayes won in 2022 with about 49 percent of the vote and in 2024 with about 51 percent, margins well below her Democratic colleagues elsewhere in the state.

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