Who's In the Race

Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) faces Democrat Kimberly Overman and independent Branden Scrivener in the November 3 general election in Florida's 12th District. Florida is running this race on a new congressional map that Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law on May 4. ​

Bilirakis has represented the district since first being elected in 2006 and previously served in the Florida House of Representatives from 1998 to 2006. Overman served as a Hillsborough County commissioner from 2018 to 2022, including as commission chair, and is a Certified Financial Planner practitioner.

Overman won the Aug. 18 Democratic primary with about 53 percent of the vote over Darren McAuley. Scrivener works as a case manager assistant, connecting patients with local resources and working with insurers to help get care covered.

What They Stand For

Bilirakis has supported an "all of the above" energy strategy, including greater domestic energy production, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Opposing socialized medicine while calling for "high quality, affordable healthcare,"
  • Tax-code reform to remove barriers to economic growth,
  • Legislation to permanently reduce student-loan interest rates; and
  • Keeping families intact on immigration, with openness to DACA renewals if paired with ending chain migration and the visa lottery.

Overman has proposed expanding affordable-housing investment and strengthening support for working families and small businesses, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Lowering prescription-drug costs, expanding mental-health coverage, and protecting access to reproductive services,
  • A public-safety approach combining law enforcement with mental-health services and community-led crime prevention,
  • Stronger school investment, competitive teacher pay, and expanded access to early-childhood and higher education; and
  • Restoring and protecting abortion rights and access to reproductive care.

Scrivener has called for expanding the House through proportional representation and supports universal healthcare, arguing the insurance industry needs reform, according to the Land O' Lakes-Lutz Courier.

The Money Behind the Race

As of July 29, Gus Bilirakis had raised about $1.6 million and had about $554,000 cash on hand, while Kimberly Overman had raised about $187,000 and had roughly $4,900 on hand, giving Bilirakis more than 100 times as much cash. Overman also carried about $30,700 in debt, more than her remaining cash on hand.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 9, Inside Elections rated it "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 2, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 11. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans an 87.13% chance of winning as of Oct. 15, while Democrats stood at 12.87%.

Bilirakis won the seat with about 70 percent in 2022 and about 71 percent in 2024. Republicans held 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats holding the other eight. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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