The Race
Mike Haridopolos, the incumbent Republican representative, is running for re-election in Florida's 8th U.S. House District on November 3. The primary races come first: Republicans choose from three candidates on August 18, while Democrats pick from two on the same day.
By general election day, six candidates will be on the ballot. In the prediction markets for the 2026 midterms, this race is a snooze, and that's exactly what the expert consensus says.
Ratings
When Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all agree, you know the verdict is clear. All three rating services call Florida's 8th a "Solid Republican" seat. That means Democrats face a steep climb: the race leans so heavily red that a Democratic flip would require something dramatic: a major scandal, a surprisingly weak Republican nominee, or a massive national wave. The GOP is the heavy favorite here.
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, prediction markets assign an 88% probability to a Republican victory in this race, with Democrats at just 12%. These odds come from platforms like Kalshi election markets, where traders put their dollars where their mouth is. The 2026 House control odds in this district tell a story of Republican dominance: the betting markets see this as a safe Republican hold.
Experts vs Markets
The "Solid Republican" consensus from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections lines up neatly with the 88% Republican probability from prediction market vs polls data. There's no hidden tension or market skepticism between the two camps of the expert ratings. Kalshi election markets and the traditional forecasters are reading the same room.
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