Who's In the Race

Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly face each other in Florida's governor's race, with the general election set for Nov. 3. The seat is open because incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is not running for reelection. ​

Both nominees won their Aug. 18 primaries. Donalds took the Republican contest with 807,858 votes out of 1,690,382 cast, roughly 48 percent of the total. Jolly won the Democratic primary with 61 percent of the vote, more than four times the share of second-place finisher Dayna Marie Foster, who received 15 percent.

Endorsements

Donalds has drawn backing from Donald Trump, Elon Musk, U.S. Rep. Mike Johnson, Republican Ron DeSantis, and Ken Griffin. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Jeff Landry have also endorsed Donalds.

Jolly has been endorsed by Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and Eric Holder. Those three endorsements bring some of the Democratic Party's most prominent national voices into a race that ratings outlets currently favor Republicans to win.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Three major race-rating outlets all place Florida's governor's race in the same column. Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican, updated Oct. 28; Sabato's Crystal Ball also rates it Lean Republican, updated Oct. 28; and Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican, updated Oct. 23.

Polling aggregated by Legis1 through Oct. 30 shows Donalds leading Jolly 49 percent to 44 percent, a margin of 4.3 percentage points. For context, a swing of roughly five points in Jolly's direction would put the race within the margin of error of a tie.

Previous Elections

Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with 56 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris's 43 percent, a margin of more than 1.4 million votes. In the last governor's race, in 2022, DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by more than 1.5 million votes, 4,614,210 to 3,106,313.

Both results underscore the Republican structural advantage Donalds starts with heading into November. Florida has backed the Republican presidential nominee in each of the last three cycles, and the 2022 governor's race was not close.

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