What Happened?

Federal agencies cannot show whether $126 million spent fighting gun trafficking to Mexico is actually working, according to a new audit published Sept. 28. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted the review at Congress's request. ​

The GAO found that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) lacks clear goals and performance measures for its anti-trafficking work. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) discontinued performance measures it had set up in fiscal 2023, and the State Department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) lacks baselines, targets, and results for some of its programs.

ATF reported that 68 percent of firearms recovered in Mexico and traced between January 2020 and December 2024 (about 82,785 guns) had a U.S. source.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

American taxpayers are funding a six-year, $126 million effort that the government's own auditors say cannot be measured for results.

Estimates indicate hundreds of thousands of firearms are trafficked from the U.S. into Mexico every year. Without these improvements, the GAO warned, agencies cannot determine whether resources support the most effective programs, potentially resulting in waste and missed opportunities.

Both Sides, Now

The GAO issued four recommendations, all still open at the time of publication. DHS disagreed with the recommendation to improve CBP's collection of analyzable firearm-type data; GAO maintained that recommendation was valid.

Supporters of stronger oversight point to documented trafficking cases as evidence the current effort needs better measurement. In January 2025, a federal court sentenced Keith Octavio Rodriguez Padilla to 19.5 years in prison for supplying weapons and ammunition to the Sinaloa Cartel, according to the U.S. Attorney's Office, Southern District of California. In March 2024, federal authorities announced the arrests of five people in South Texas, alleging they trafficked military-grade firearms to a Mexican drug cartel, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

DHS agreed to establish objectives and performance measures for its Homeland Security Investigations and CBP units. In February 2025, the State Department designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists.

What Happens Next?

The open recommendations call for ATF to establish performance measures for Operation Southbound and for INL to develop baselines and targets for its programs. The review was congressionally requested, and all four of its recommendations were still open at publication.

Will federal agencies put the measurement tools in place needed to show whether $126 million in anti-trafficking spending is actually reducing the flow of guns into Mexico?

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