Hawaii's 2nd District Primary

Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, covering rural and suburban Oahu outside Honolulu along with Maui, the Big Island, Kauai, Molokai and Lanai, holds its primary Saturday, Aug. 8. Hawaii runs traditional party primaries, with the top vote-getter in each party's contest advancing to the Tuesday, Nov. 3 general election. There's no top-two or ranked-choice mechanism.

Four Democrats are on Saturday's ballot: incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda and three challengers, Kirill Basin, Greg Guithues and Steven King. One Republican, state Sen. Brenton Awa, is running unopposed for his party's nomination. Two nonpartisan candidates, Edward Codelia and Randall Terry, are also on the ballot but compete separately.

The Candidates

Jill Tokuda (D) is seeking a third term after winning her 2024 general election with 66.5% of the vote. Before Congress, she spent years in the Hawaii State Senate chairing the Ways and Means Committee. Her campaign centers on cost of living and disaster relief for Maui wildfire survivors. Her three Democratic primary opponents have reported no FEC fundraising; Polymarket's HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner market puts her at 99% to win the nomination as of 12:08 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 6th.

Brenton Awa (R) is the Hawaii Senate minority leader, representing District 23 on Oahu's windward side since 2022. A former television news anchor, he's campaigning on housing affordability and reducing the cost of living for residents. He faces no primary opposition.

The Money Behind the Race

Tokuda leads fundraising by a wide margin: $820,678 raised, $733,764 spent, and $570,355 in cash on hand, per FEC filings covering the period ending July 19. Awa has raised $122,615, spent $106,514, and holds $16,101 in cash on hand over the same period. Combined, the two campaigns have raised roughly $943,000. Tokuda's Democratic primary opponents, Basin, Guithues and King, have not reported any FEC fundraising. No independent expenditure data has been reported for the race.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate the general election Solid Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Democratic. On Kalshi, the Democratic contract for the HI-02 House winner trades at 95.3% against 6.1% for the Republican contract, on roughly $9,755 in volume. Both the raters and the market point in the same direction: a seat that's never elected a Republican, with a primary Tokuda is expected to clear easily before an even more lopsided November.

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