Who's In the Race

Rep. Ed Case (D-HI) faces Republican Adriel Lam in the Nov. 3 general election for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. ​

Case has represented the district since 2019 and previously served in the Hawaii State House from 1994 to 2002, including as majority leader. He won the Democratic primary on Aug. 8 with about 57 percent of the vote, while Jarrett Keohokalole, who did not win, received 34,878 votes. Lam won the Republican primary on the same date; the record does not report his vote share.

What They Stand For

Case has supported expanding legal immigration while curtailing illegal immigration, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Healthy-family initiatives,
  • International cooperation on climate change; and
  • A record of public service spanning state and federal office.

Lam has proposed eliminating federal income taxes and replacing them with a national dividend funded by tariffs, according to Civil Beat. He's also supported:

  • The Trump administration's military actions and policies regarding Iran in 2026, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser; and
  • A platform focused on restructuring federal tax policy.

Green Party candidate Conley has identified healthcare as the biggest issue facing most people, has supported repealing the Jones Act, and has said he would seek more federal funding for Hawaii while opposing cuts to programs that benefit Native Hawaiians, according to Civil Beat and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

Independent progressive candidate Nathan Berning says housing, healthcare, food, and transportation are human rights.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Case raised about $1.1 million through July 19 and had about $600,000 in the bank. Lam reported no receipts or cash on hand in FEC filings.

Outside spending in the race totaled just $10 as of Oct. 13, all of it supporting Keohokalole, spent by Sierra Club Independent Action.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections also rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Case, a 97.65 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13.

Case carried the district with about 71 percent in 2022 and about 65 percent in 2024. Democrats won both of Hawaii's U.S. House seats in 2022 and again in 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried Hawaii with about 60 percent of the vote.

Voters who want to register by paper must do so by Monday, Oct. 26, by 4:30 p.m.; online registration is open through Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3; and in-person registration is available from Tuesday, Oct. 20 through Election Day at voter service centers, where same-day registration is allowed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is Tuesday, Oct. 27. Early voting runs Tuesday, Oct. 20 through Monday, Nov. 2, Monday through Saturday from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., though hours may vary by location. On Election Day, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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