What Happened?

A Democratic super PAC pulled more than $1 million in reserved TV time from a Florida congressional race this week, the single largest cancellation in the day's political ad filings. The House Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with House Democratic leadership, cancelled $1.09 million of booked airtime tied to Florida's 25th U.S. House District, an open seat rated Lean Democratic. ​

Both cancellations were filed in the Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne market, one for $524,000 and one for $549,000. A super PAC is an independent political committee that can raise and spend unlimited money on ads but cannot give directly to a candidate.

The figures come from Federal Communications Commission (FCC) political files covering broadcast, cable, radio and satellite stations, measuring airtime booked rather than money spent, and excluding digital and streaming buys.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

Democratic-aligned groups still hold $18.02 million in Florida airtime reserved for flights yet to run, compared with $14.27 million for Republican-aligned groups. Democratic-aligned groups have about $18 million booked ahead in Florida, $3.75 million more than the roughly $14.3 million booked by Republican-aligned groups.

Republican-aligned groups put 44 percent of their day's total into Iowa, where Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D) in a Senate race rated Toss-up. Texas led all states at $1.88 million for the day, with Republican-aligned groups accounting for $1.74 million of that total.

Both Sides, Now

Over the trailing 14 days, Republican-aligned groups have outbooked Democratic-aligned groups by $35.65 million, reserving $54.69 million in airtime against $19.04 million for Democratic-aligned groups. Republican-aligned groups booked $2.99 million today, while Democratic-aligned groups were a net negative $471,000, widening the partisan gap from $2.18 million to $3.46 million.

For operatives tracking House battlegrounds, a Democratic-side cut of that size in a Lean Democratic seat is consistent with money being shifted within a crowded map rather than withdrawn from the race. PBS NewsHour reported this month that the Congressional Leadership Fund canceled spending in four House races amid shifting district lines, cancellations that can be consistent with changes in where campaign money is allocated.

What Happens Next?

The week starting Oct. 19 carries $71.17 million in reserved airtime for Republican-aligned groups and $81.81 million for Democratic-aligned groups; the week starting Oct. 26 carries $7.98 million for Republicans and $5.74 million for Democrats. The weeks starting Nov. 2 and Nov. 9 carry no booked airtime yet.

A Republican response in Florida would look like new FCC filings in Orlando or South Florida markets for the week starting Oct. 19; a Democratic response in Iowa would look like added filings for that same week.

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