The Race
Republican incumbent Jim Risch cruised through the primary on May 19, 2026, securing 156,208 votes out of 232,235 cast. He'll face Democratic challenger David Jordan Roth, Independent Todd Baker Achilles, and a handful of other candidates when voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this race "Solid Republican." In plain English, that means Risch isn't just favored; he's heavily favored. These ratings reflect the fundamentals: an incumbent in a solidly red state, facing long odds for any challenger.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi's election betting market is even more bullish. As of June 29, 2026, bettors gave the Republican candidate a 98.94% probability of victory, with the Democratic candidate at just 1.06%. With 44,292 shares traded, there's real money behind those numbers.
Experts vs. Markets
Both say "Risch wins, and it's not close." The "Solid Republican" rating and the 98.94% Kalshi odds aren't contradicting each other, they're reinforcing the same story from different angles.
Risch's primary dominance, his incumbent status, and Idaho's red lean have created a political environment where even the sharpest bettors see almost no path to a Democratic upset.
For Roth and the challengers, November 3 is less about winning and more about making a respectable showing in a state that has spoken.
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