Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL) faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 3 general election in Illinois's 15th District. ​

Miller, a grain and cattle farmer and mother of seven, has represented the district since 2021. She won the March 17 Republican primary with about 74 percent of the vote, beating runner-up Ryan Tebrugge by nearly 59 percentage points.

Todd is a registered nurse from southern Illinois and the daughter and granddaughter of veterans. She won the March 17 Democratic primary with about 46 percent of the vote over runner-up Paul Davis, who received about 34 percent.

The Republican primary drew nearly three times as many voters as the Democratic contest, 88,094 to 29,981, a gap of more than 58,000 ballots.

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What They Stand For

Miller has described herself as a conservative who stands with President Trump, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Second Amendment rights,
  • pro-life,
  • election security; and
  • support for the military and veterans.

Todd has proposed lowering costs for working families by addressing price gouging, prescription drug costs, housing, and childcare, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Expanding rural veterans' access to VA healthcare and strengthening caregiver and mental-health services,
  • fully funding public schools, raising teacher pay, and expanding vocational and technical training,
  • protecting rural hospitals, expanding mental-health services, and strengthening Medicare and Medicaid; and
  • equal treatment under the law and protecting families' freedom to make personal healthcare decisions.

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Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the district Solid Republican as of Oct. 9, Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Oct. 11, and Inside Elections as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Miller, a 95.07% chance of winning as of Oct. 15.

Miller won the district with about 71 percent of the vote in 2022 and about 100 percent in 2024, when she took 99.5 percent. Democrats won 14 of the state's 17 U.S. House seats in 2024, and Republicans won three. Democrat Kamala Harris carried Illinois in the 2024 presidential election with about 54 percent of the vote.

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