Who's In the Race

Illinois's 16th Congressional District features Republican incumbent Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) and Democrat Paul Nolley in the Nov. 3 general election. ​

LaHood has represented Illinois in the U.S. House since 2015, first for the 18th District and, after redistricting, for the 16th. Before Congress, he served in the Illinois State Senate beginning in 2011 and worked for more than nine years as a state and federal prosecutor, including as an Assistant U.S. Attorney and Chief Terrorism Prosecutor in Las Vegas from 2001 to 2006. He ran unopposed in the March 17 Republican primary.

Nolley is executive director of Project First Rate, where he works on blue-collar apprenticeship programs and construction policies. His campaign biography says he previously worked as a cook, cashier, cleaner and farmhand, and attended Illinois State University. He also ran unopposed in the March 17 Democratic primary.

What They Stand For

LaHood has proposed that health care decisions should be made by "families, individual patients, and their doctor," and supports repealing what he calls harmful parts of the Affordable Care Act, according to his official House website. He's also supported reducing regulations and simplifying the tax code to encourage business growth and job creation, preserving Social Security while proposing a different system for younger entrants and supporting a bipartisan debt commission to consider reforms; and letting local officials make data-center siting decisions, with transparency requirements on water and electricity use.

Nolley has proposed lifting the income cap on Social Security payroll taxes for people earning more than $250,000 and opposes raising the retirement age. He's also supported federal legislation requiring data centers to provide their own energy generation, protecting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, strengthening unions and workers' rights; and reviving manufacturing and blue-collar careers, according to his campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, LaHood had raised about $3.7 million and Nolley about $416,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. LaHood also had about $6.7 million in cash on hand as of June 30, more than his roughly $3.7 million in total receipts. Nolley had about $230,000 on hand through the same date. Outside groups have spent about $1,041 opposing LaHood, all from Citizens for the 16th.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major handicapper rates this race out of reach for Nolley. Cook Political Report rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 92.84% chance of winning as of Oct. 20.

The district's recent history reinforces that picture. LaHood won the 2024 race with nearly 100% of the vote, running without major-party opposition, and took about 66% in 2022. Statewide, however, Illinois has leaned Democratic in recent years, with Democrats taking 14 of Illinois's 17 House seats in both 2022 and 2024. Meanwhile, Democrat Kamala Harris carried Illinois with about 54% of the vote in the 2024 presidential race.

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