Who's In the Race

Democrat Juliana Stratton faces Republican Don Tracy and independent Whitfield Harrington Jr. in the November 3 general election in Illinois's U.S. Senate race. The seat is open because incumbent Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) announced his retirement on April 23, 2025. ​

Stratton has served as Illinois' lieutenant governor since 2019 and previously represented Illinois House District 5; before public office, she worked as a mediator, arbitrator, and restorative-justice practitioner. She won the March 17 Democratic primary with about 40% of the vote, about eight percentage points ahead of runner-up Raja Krishnamoorthi, who received about 33%.

Tracy is an Illinois attorney and senior counsel at Brown, Hay & Stephens, who previously owned and operated a law firm in Springfield, served as chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, and chaired the Illinois Gaming Board. He won the March 17 Republican primary with about 40% of the vote, ahead of runner-up Jeannie Evans, who received about 23%.

What They Stand For

Stratton has proposed securing Medicare for All, according to her campaign website. She has also supported raising the federal minimum wage, with a goal of a "$25 Minimum Wage," a middle-class tax cut paid for by raising taxes on people earning more than $1 million a year, passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and restoring abortion protections that existed under Roe v. Wade.

Tracy has proposed lowering taxes and cutting what he calls wasteful spending to help families keep more of what they earn, according to his campaign website. He has also supported an "all-of-the-above" energy approach to lower costs and protect reliability, reduce health care costs through greater price transparency and more competition, expand affordable housing by removing barriers that raise prices, and strengthen border security and enforce immigration laws.

Harrington, who is helping form the American Center Party, has proposed using domestic energy resources to lower costs now while building renewable energy capacity, making the first year of community college free, and expanding access to direct primary care through loan forgiveness and grants for independent practices.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, 2026, Stratton had raised about $5.9 million and had about $1.1 million in cash on hand, while Tracy had raised about $2.5 million and had about $1.5 million on hand. Tracy reported $1,512,423.84 in cash on hand against $2,000,000 in debt, leaving his debt about $488,000 higher than his cash as of June 30, 2026. Stratton carries no debt.

Outside groups have spent about $9.1 million supporting Stratton and about $10.5 million opposing her, with Illinois Future PAC the largest supporter at about $8.9 million and FairShake the largest opponent at about $10 million. FairShake's opposition spending alone, at about $10 million, exceeds Stratton's total campaign receipts by roughly $4.1 million.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 12; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats a 97.06% chance of winning as of Oct. 15, leaving Republicans at 2.94%.

Illinois's partisan history reinforces that picture. In the state's last Senate race in 2022, Democrat Tammy Duckworth won with about 57% of the vote. Democrats won 14 of Illinois's 17 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, a dominance consistent with the Democratic primary drawing more than twice the turnout of the Republican primary this cycle. Democrat Kamala Harris carried Illinois in the 2024 presidential election with about 54% of the vote.

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