The Race
Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman is running for re-election in Indiana's third U.S. House District against Democrat Kelly Thompson. The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026. Stutzman won the Republican primary decisively, while Thompson ran unopposed on the Democratic side—a telling sign of where the political winds are blowing in this corner of Indiana.
Ratings
Indiana's third congressional district carries a Solid Republican rating from the consensus of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Experts think this seat is Republican territory, barring some major political earthquake. The race is not competitive by traditional midterm race ratings standards—it's not a toss-up, it's solid. That means a Democratic victory would be a genuine upset.
Prediction Markets
On Kalshi, the prediction market odds are even more bullish on Stutzman. As of June 29, 2026, betting markets gave the Republican candidate a 96.4% probability of winning.
Experts vs. Markets
Prediction markets vs. polls are agreeing. There's no daylight between the professionals and the people putting real money down. Both are saying the same thing: this is Stutzman's seat to lose, and losing it would require something extraordinary to happen before November. The primary results back this up—Stutzman's commanding primary performance left no doubt about Republican enthusiasm in the district.
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