Who's In the Race

Indiana's 4th Congressional District heads to a general election on Nov. 3, with Republican incumbent Jim Baird facing Democratic challenger Drew Cox.

Baird cleared the Republican primary on May 5, taking 60.5 percent of the vote (37,855 votes) in a three-way field. Cox won the Democratic primary the same day, topping a nine-candidate field with 7,550 votes.

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What They Stand For

Jim Baird (Republican)

Baird, who serves on the House Committee on Agriculture, lists supporting agriculture and protecting family farms as his top stated priority, according to a WBAA/WFYI voter guide survey response and his official House biography.

He has also named strengthening the economy and reducing government spending as a top priority for the 2026 cycle, per the same voter guide.

On national security, Baird listed securing the southern border as a top priority in his 2026 primary survey responses, as reported by WFYI.

In a candidate Q&A published by Based in Lafayette, Baird described himself as "a staunch defender of the U.S. Constitution, especially the Second Amendment, and an advocate for protecting the life of the unborn," and identified as "pro-life, pro-Israel, and a supporter of the Second Amendment."

Baird has also authored legislation aimed at expanding mental health resources for veterans and sits on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, according to the Indiana Capital Chronicle primary voter guide.

Drew Cox (Democrat)

Cox, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and visiting instructor at Purdue University, centers his campaign on healthcare, calling for a single-payer Medicare for All system. His campaign website states: "Every American deserves accessible, affordable, and reliable healthcare," and frames the current for-profit insurance model as incentivizing claim denials.

On immigration, Cox has called for abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and replacing it with what he describes as "a fair, equitable, and efficient immigration system." His campaign site says he was inspired to run in part by "witnessing the atrocities committed by ICE across the United States."

Cox's issues page states he is "strongly opposed to the current state of United States foreign policy, specifically regarding involvements in Gaza and the Middle East," and has called for cutting off U.S. military and financial aid to Israel.

He has also focused on regulating large-scale developments such as data centers, which he views as affecting Indiana communities, and on the cost of living, per his campaign's "Drew's Story" page and the Indiana Capital Chronicle Democratic primary voter guide.

Cox's campaign homepage pledges to put "young people and policies at the forefront" and states he refuses corporate PAC donations, saying this ensures his interests "lie entirely with the people."

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The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings show $737,421 in independent expenditures tied to the Republican side of the race, across seven recorded transactions.

Of the total outside activity, $548,273 went toward supporting a candidate across eight expenditures, while $200,000 was spent in opposition across one expenditure. The FEC filings show all support expenditures benefit Baird, and the single opposition expenditure targets him.

The leaderboard shows totals only; support or opposition direction for individual committees comes from the separate breakdown above.

Defend American Jobs leads all outside spenders with $513,868 across two filings. Homeland PAC Inc. accounts for the full $200,000 in opposition spending, in a single filing. The National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee (NAR PAC) and the National Association of Realtors each filed twice, spending $11,777 and $10,851, respectively. Patriotic Fund, Inc. has spent $11,776 in the race.

These figures reflect FEC periodic filings with coverage through Sept. 21, and 24/48-hour notices through Sept. 28.

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Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this contest Solid Republican. Cook Political Report rated it Solid Republican as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball made the same call as of Sept. 22; and Inside Elections matched that rating as of Sept. 17.

The prediction market Kalshi put Baird's probability of winning at 93 percent, with Cox at seven percent, as of Sept. 28.

Baird won the seat with about 68 percent of the vote in 2022 and about 65 percent in 2024.

Republicans won eight of nine U.S. House races in 2022 and seven of nine in 2024. In the Senate, Todd Young won the Class III seat in 2022 with about 59 percent of the vote, and Jim Banks won the Class I seat in 2024 with about 59 percent as well.

At the presidential level, the Republican nominee carried Indiana in 2024 with nearly 59 percent of the vote.

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