Who's In the Race

Indiana's 8th U.S. House District heads to a general election on Nov. 3, with two candidates advancing from the May 5 primaries. Republican Mark Messmer, the incumbent representative, ran unopposed in his primary, collecting all 52,249 votes cast. Democrat Mary Allen won a four-way Democratic primary with about two-thirds of the vote, 18,816 of 28,203 ballots cast.

What They Stand For

Mark Messmer

Messmer's re-election announcement, as reported by WBIW, highlighted border security as a defining issue of his tenure. On abortion, his campaign issues page states he is pro-life.

His campaign homepage emphasizes cutting taxes and regulations and promoting economic growth, according to a WBIW report on his re-election announcement, which cited a Trump endorsement highlighting Messmer's work to "Cut Taxes and Regulations" and support American manufacturing.

Messmer's campaign homepage emphasizes support for farmers and ranchers, care for veterans, and protection of the Second Amendment as key issues.

Mary Allen

Allen's campaign priorities page calls for accessible and affordable healthcare, protecting Medicaid funding, and preserving rural hospital access. Allen's campaign lists veterans' services as a priority, according to her campaign website at maryallenforcongress.com/priorities.

On economic issues, WVPE public radio reported that Allen's platform calls for raising wages, expanding affordable housing, fully funding child care vouchers, and increasing pay for child care workers.

Allen has joined the "Take Back Congress" coalition and, per the Indiana Capital Chronicle voter guide and WNIN public radio, has pledged not to accept corporate PAC money or foreign lobby dollars. Her priorities page also calls for overturning *Citizens United*, banning stock trading by members of Congress while in office, and establishing a Supreme Court ethics code.

On immigration, Allen's campaign priorities page states: "Our immigration policy should reflect our values, not our fears," framing the issue around neighbors, classmates, and coworkers rather than enforcement.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending data for this race was not available at the time of publication. Combined fundraising across all candidates in the race totaled $1,465,868 as of Sept. 21.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this contest a safe Republican hold. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball issued the same rating as of Sept. 22; and Inside Elections matched that call as of Sept. 17.

Prediction market Kalshi put the Republican's probability of winning at about 95 percent as of Sept. 28, with the Democrat at roughly five percent, based on 5,864 contracts traded.

Republicans have carried Indiana's 8th U.S. House District by wide margins in recent cycles, with Larry Bucshon winning about 65.7 percent of the vote in 2022 and Mark Messmer winning nearly 68 percent in 2024.

Across Indiana's nine House seats and one Senate seat in both 2022 and 2024, Republicans won eight of nine House races and the Senate race each cycle; Democrats held only the 1st and 7th districts. At the top of the ticket in 2024, Donald Trump carried Indiana with about 59 percent of the vote.

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