Who's In the Race

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) faces Democrat Christina Bohannan and independent Michael Bridgford in the November 3 general election in Iowa's 1st Congressional District. ​

This is the third consecutive general-election matchup between Miller-Meeks and Bohannan; Miller-Meeks won both previous contests, according to WQAD. Miller-Meeks served 24 years in the U.S. Army as a private, nurse, and ophthalmologist, was director of the Iowa Department of Public Health from 2010 to 2014, served in the Iowa Senate beginning in 2018, and took office in the U.S. House in January 2021.

Bohannan is a University of Iowa College of Law professor with 26 years of experience, an environmental engineer by training who worked on water quality before law school, and a former Iowa state representative first elected in 2020. Bridgford describes himself as a small-business owner who grew up on a family farm near the Quad Cities and later earned an MBA from Northwestern, according to his campaign website.

Miller-Meeks won the June 2 Republican primary with about 72 percent of the vote over David Pautsch. Bohannan won the June 2 Democratic primary with about 81 percent of the vote over Travis Terrell.

What They Stand For

Bohannan has proposed lowering costs as her "top priority," including ending tariffs, curbing price-gouging, and expanding affordable housing, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Allowing people to buy into Medicare at any age, while keeping private insurance as an option,
  • Capping insulin at $35 per month for everyone and expanding Medicare drug-price negotiations,
  • Increasing public-education funding, including investment in rural schools, community colleges, career training and apprenticeships; and
  • Investments to help farmers improve water quality and protect natural resources.

Miller-Meeks has said Congress must have a role in decisions on Iran and opposed a "forever war," while also saying "we can't have a nuclear-armed Iran," according to Iowa Public Radio. She also addresses:

  • High diesel and gasoline prices affecting Iowans, which she has tied to concerns about the Iran conflict, according to Iowa Public Radio,
  • Health care, environment and manufacturing, among her committee responsibilities listed on her official House website.

Bridgford has listed fiscal responsibility and affordability, Social Security, congressional term limits and stock-trading bans among his priorities, according to his campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Miller-Meeks had raised about $7.2 million and had about $4.7 million in cash on hand, while Bohannan had raised about $7.1 million, roughly $157,000 less, but held about $5.4 million in cash, giving her a cash-on-hand edge of about $734,000. Bridgford raised about $190,000 through June 30 and had about $125,000 on hand; his debt of $100,000 is more than half his receipts.

Outside groups have spent about $2.3 million opposing Miller-Meeks, with SD 2026 as the largest single spender against her at about $1.6 million, and about $420,000 supporting her. Outside groups have spent about $49,000 supporting Bohannan, with WelcomePAC the largest contributor at about $45,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democratic as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 11; and the consensus rating was Lean Democratic as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Bohannan, an 89.11% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 20, leaving Republicans, whose nominee is Miller-Meeks, at 10.89%.

Miller-Meeks won the district in 2022 with about 53 percent and in 2024 with about 50 percent, a drop of more than two and a half points in her vote share, and she won her last race without a majority. Republicans won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024.

Donald Trump carried Iowa in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote. The district's tightening results over two cycles, set against a state that has trended solidly Republican at the presidential and congressional levels, help explain why national forecasters and prediction markets now favor Bohannan even as the broader Iowa map leans red.

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